For it to be a true analogue if the birthday paradox, it would have to happen rarely to you individually, but surprisingly often to one pair of people in the locker room when there are a smallish number in there.
If you take a locker in the middle, there will be 8 lockers right next to yours, which may represent a sizable fraction of the total number. Combine that people are not random and that they tend to forget about the times where it doesn't happen and it may seem like it happens all the time even when it is uncommon on average.
Logistically, it makes sense for them, as it presumably cuts down on maintenance and cleaning. But it is super-annoying to squeeze past several other sweaty folk when there are two entire locker corridors empty and adjacent.
I asked them about the latter issue, and they said that it might get fixed next year; but there are years-old Google Reviews of the gym citing this promise!
I haven’t tested this hypothesis yet but I suspect I could be wandering the desert and out of no where someone will try to slink past me while saying excuse me and spilling my canteen all over.
I imagine it’d be more fun in a group setting?
And happy birthday phito :)
Happy Birthday!
It looks like many people submit January 1 or the current date.
Related, having flat tires on a car seems to come in little bursts,like 10 years none and then 2 in a year.
Also, people are good at noticing patterns that don't exist, so that's a possibility too.
Most people live above 35°S where, at the most extreme, winter days are about 10 hours and a half long (plus about an hour of decent twilight). Temperatures obviously vary depending on region but they don't really get much below 10°C as far as I know.
So really, it's more like mostly bright and somewhat chilly.
The actual distribution in developed countries is not uniform: there is a spike at the end of September (because many more people make babies at or around New Year's Eve) and a considerable drop on Dec. 25th (because people will avoid that date and provoque the birth some days before in case it might happen).
Also, on the site there is a huge spike on Nov. 15 which, incidentally, is the birthday of the author: maybe they tested it many times?
This is a nice story I've heard many times, but is it actually true? Like what are your statistical sources here?
https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/births
For the period 2000-2014 the number of births by month, divided by the number of days in a month, is:
1 31 5 072 588 163 631.87
2 28 4 725 693 168 774.75
3 31 5 172 961 166 869.71
4 30 4 960 750 165 358.33
5 31 5 195 445 167 595.00
6 30 5 163 360 172 112.00
7 31 5 450 418 175 819.94
8 31 5 540 170 178 715.16
9 30 5 399 592 179 986.40
10 31 5 302 865 171 060.16
11 30 5 008 750 166 958.33
12 31 5 194 432 167 562.32
365 62 187 024 170 375.41
Edit: also, here, a graph per day:
https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fm...
(The source is mentioned but I did not verify it directly).
Bottom line: hospitals are short staffed on Xmas so they set scheduled procedures which may induce labor for the day before or the day after whenever possible which preserves their limited capacity on Xmas for unscheduled births and emergencies.
Cause I was born in Australia on Nov 14th :-D
The odds that someone else shares just your birthday out of 23 people sounds crazy still. It should be 182.5 to get to 50%, right?
Most people access they WEB via the phone, I would expect it is up to 80% browse on their phone.
Then I checked the wiki page and understood that some of the maths is actually quite fiendish (for non mathematicians anyway) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem
The actual chance of being in the same room with someone who shares your birthday needs to include other factors like your socioeconomic background, the cultural environment you are in, your present location, and certain historical facts.
Without having done the math, I'm fairly certain that a member of the baby boomer generation in New York has a higher chance of meeting their birthday sibling than a 12-year-old in a rural part of Australia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox#Veridical_paradox
(also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppX7Qjbe6BM for a 40min video discussing the weird usages of the word "paradox")
Are you saying that income influences what time of the year you are born?
The paradox doesn’t talk about meeting your birthday sibling, but meeting two people who are birthday siblings.
So by the time the 12 year old has met ~20 people, there is a 50/50 chance that amongst those 20, there’s a birthday pair.
If you randomly choose the ~20 people from the global population then yes, this will be the case (especially after a number of rounds). And yes, I'm aware this is also the definition of the paradox.
But if you choose the people from your vicinity (i.e the people you are actually likely to meet), the chances will vary based on your individual parameters (which defines the number and quality of the sample size).
