Chocolate intake and risk of type 2 diabetes: prospective cohort studies
83 points
20 days ago
| 15 comments
| bmj.com
| HN
JoshTko
20 days ago
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Investigator initiated grants from Mars Edge i.e. the Chocolate candy company. Mars edge a health focused dept which has like a cocoa based health supplement.
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Pigalowda
20 days ago
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Good catch! This is too much conflict for me to take seriously. Like the beverage and tobacco industry studies.

Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at https://www.icmje.org/disclosure-of-interest/ and declare: support from the National Institutes of Health for the submitted work. JEM reports receiving investigator initiated grants from Mars Edge. EBR is on the scientific advisory board and has received research funding from the US Department of Agriculture/US Highbush Blueberry growers commodity group.

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UniverseHacker
20 days ago
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As an academic PI I would not feel the slightest inclination or pressure to produce results favorable to a company just because I got a research grant from their foundation. Most such places use volunteer external reviewers to avoid a conflict of interest in who gets funded- and I have also served in that role for private foundations before.
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szundi
20 days ago
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Also plausible to think that THEREFORE you are not getting any grants from Mars.
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meiraleal
19 days ago
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Added: /s
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Wolfenstein98k
20 days ago
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What is the proposed mechanism for Mars getting the outcomes to be positive?

I understand the implied incentives, but either there is fraud in the paper, or the methodology should reveal how the scientists contrived false outcomes.

Otherwise, why does the paper conclude that milk chocolate - Mars' biggest source of revenue from chocolate - has no association with good outcomes and has association with weight gain?

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JoshTko
10 days ago
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P hacking is easy. Get test and control groups. Measure 40 health attributes. Give test group your special compound. Measure 40 health attributes again. Keep only results that show positive benefit (avg. around 2 by random chance). Publish, profit. Data would be clean and does not need to be manipulated. The overall scientific process is rife to be corrupted as long as tester and measurer are the same party, especially when there is financial incentive.
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szundi
20 days ago
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Not getting the next grant is hurting your income. So obvious.
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Wolfenstein98k
17 days ago
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See second paragraph.
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GrantMoyer
20 days ago
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From the results section:

> In the age and calendar time stratified Cox proportional hazards models, no significant associations were observed between total chocolate consumption and risk of T2D in the pooled dataset (table 3). After adjusting for lifestyle and dietary risk factors, we found that participants who consumed ≥5 servings/week of any chocolate showed a 10% (95% CI 2% to 17%; P trend=0.07) lower relative risk of T2D compared with those who never or rarely consumed chocolate.

To me, this sounds like there was no correlation, but after weighing the data by other factors (including BMI, according to the methods section) a correlation appears. Does that mean if members of a subgroup eat lots of chocolate, but also have much higher BMIs, because they also eat lots of everthing else, they could have a lower adjusted risk for type 2 diabetes, even if they actually have a higher incidence of type 2 diabetes? Am I misinterpreting?

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ivewonyoung
20 days ago
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> Does that mean if members of a subgroup eat lots of chocolate, but also have much higher BMIs, because they also eat lots of everthing else, they could have a lower adjusted risk for type 2 diabetes, even if they actually have a higher incidence of type 2 diabetes

They have a lower risk compared to others with similarly high BMI but don't consume dark chocolate.

BMI is a risk factor for T2D so to tease out the effectiveness of a given proposed remedy, you need to compare like to like, i.e compare people of similar BMI that eat dark chocolate and don't eat dark chocolate.

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riehwvfbk
19 days ago
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But since dark chocolate is not exactly a staple, what this is actually selecting for is "people who eat a variety of foods in big quantities" vs those who "gained all their weight from frozen pizza". It seems a no-brainer that the former is the relatively healthier choice. But that's not science. Science apparently is picking one variable at a time, blanking the rest of you mind, and drawing a conclusion.
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m348e912
20 days ago
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Key Takeaway:

Participants consuming ≥5 servings of dark chocolate per week had a significantly lower risk of T2D (21% lower) compared to those who consumed little or none.

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markus_zhang
20 days ago
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I always wonder how much is one serving? 1 ounce? Why can't they just say 1 ounce or xx grams? Same goes to "cup", guess it's an American thing.
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scrozier
20 days ago
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You're right about the "serving" thing. But in the US, at least, a cup in a culinary context means precisely eight ounces.
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daemonologist
20 days ago
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Now we're tempted to go down the ounce rabbit hole (the US fluid ounce is based on the medieval British system, which is based on the density of wine, probably).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fluid_ounce

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devonbleak
20 days ago
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Eight ounces by weight or by volume? /s
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scrozier
20 days ago
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Volume…sorry, should have made that distinction.
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magicalhippo
20 days ago
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Brian Regan had a good one on that[1].

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBko_3wT44Q

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julianeon
20 days ago
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This is useful because, at a glance, most people would probably assume chocolate is a candy and candy is bad and the study just added another drop to that bucket of evidence.
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robertlagrant
20 days ago
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Milk chocolate is very different. Don't take the wrong lesson from this.
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teractiveodular
20 days ago
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The study says milk chocolate also reduces your risk by 10%.
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murkle
20 days ago
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Where do you see that? I see "No significant associations were found for milk chocolate intake" and "Intake of milk, but not dark, chocolate was positively associated with weight gain."
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teractiveodular
20 days ago
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Ah, I stand corrected: the study starts by stating "After adjusting for personal, lifestyle, and dietary risk factors, participants consuming ≥5 servings/week of any chocolate showed a significant 10% (95% CI 2% to 17%; P trend=0.07) lower rate of T2D compared with those who never or rarely consumed chocolate", but goes on to split by chocolate types and then the positive effect disappears for milk chocolate.
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kjhughes
20 days ago
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On the other hand, Lead and Cadmium Could Be in Your Dark Chocolate:

https://www.consumerreports.org/health/food-safety/lead-and-...

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slwvx
20 days ago
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On the other other hand rat poop, bug bits, mice hair can be in your chocolate. And an asteroid can destroy earth tomorrow. I don't think any of these things should be especially worrying.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/04/health/insect-rodent-filth-in...

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derefr
20 days ago
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Unlike those other things, which are external contaminants that find their way in due to non-sanitary processing conditions, cadmium and lead in chocolate come from the soil the cocoa trees grow in, and end up in the beans themselves, in a way that is effectively impossible to extract from them.

Also, from what I've read in other sources, the higher the cocoa content in chocolate, the higher the mineral content (including these "bad minerals") in the chocolate.

And also — frustratingly — the soil that has these soil minerals, is also the soil that imparts what people generally consider to be more interesting/tasty terroir into the chocolate. The single-source, ethical, sustainable chocolate? Highest heavy-metal content.

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szundi
20 days ago
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When I die, one should asses wether it’s cancer or not.

In case not, my case would prove that chocolate is almost surely not dangerous

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autoexec
20 days ago
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It's disturbing to think about, but there is a "safe" level of rat shit, bug parts, and mouse hair while there is no safe level of lead and while food contaminated with feces can make you sick, heavy metal poisoning can make you measurably dumber which is more frightening to me.
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szundi
20 days ago
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One could argue that one atom of anything is not dangerous.

Therefore it is proven that there is a level of anything that is dangerous yet.

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kjhughes
20 days ago
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That CNN article is a light-weight review of select food defects allowed, not measured, by the FDA and chosen by the author for their yuck factor. I wouldn't let any of it justify a dismissiveness of heavy metals in dark chocolate.

The Consumer Reports article presents investigative results that measured actual heavy metals levels in dark chocolate. It's worth considering by anyone encouraged to increase their dark chocolate consumption by the diabetes study.

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ASalazarMX
20 days ago
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We are tiny motes of meat briefly living in a thin layer around an insignificant wet rock circling a mediocre star in the backwaters of a mediocre galaxy.

The universe is incredibly, unimaginably stupidly big; how significant is eating a little bit of dirt in your chocolate compared to that?

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jey
20 days ago
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This sounds extremely confounded by lifestyle, socioeconomic status, and overall diet. The kinds of people who eat dark chocolate are clearly a self-selected bunch of outliers. Even though they tried to correct for some of these covariates, I'm personally going to take these results with a pinch of salted chocolate.

To be fair, the authors do acknowledge these limitations of their methodology, and these kinds of studies are a useful part of the overall enterprise of science to explore and propose hypotheses.

> First, we cannot entirely rule out the role of confounding in our observed associations. We controlled for multiple lifestyle and dietary covariates that might confound the associations of interest, although residual or unmeasured confounding, or both, may still exist owing to the observational nature of the analysis.

Regardless, I'll go ahead and take this finding as a further justification to keep eating dark chocolate.

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mrsilencedogood
20 days ago
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I'm also suspect for similar reasons, but this at least seems consistent with lots of other stuff we're finding out about the random things humanity has been imbibing for millennia (coffee, tea, cacao, etc). Anything that's anti-inflammatory seems to help fix a lot of stuff, as long as whatever you do to get that anti-inflammatory effect doesn't have too many downsides.

For instance, I wonder if we'll eventually find an NSAID that isn't hard on the liver, and low doses end up in things like vitamins. (My understanding is that that's the main reason you can't just constantly take small doses of advil - the marginal positive effects of reduced inflammation are outweighed by your kidneys and liver being made to constantly work harder).

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akira2501
20 days ago
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To arrive at a conclusion which suggests you should always just add a fixed amount of some substance to your diet seems generally flawed to me. It treats bodies like they're all average machines with fixed inputs and predictable results and zero emergent properties.

If wonder if we'll eventually improve genetic and blood testing to the point where everyone can have customized daily information to help them make the best individual choice.

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FriedPickles
20 days ago
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Hopefully there will be a follow up RCT. I volunteer for the test group.
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ricardobeat
20 days ago
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This is always the top comment on these studies, but come on, it’s a medical journal. As you already pointed out they did adjust for confounding factors, you simply cannot exclude them completely with a single study.
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Projectiboga
20 days ago
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Yes, this also measures how well of these individuals are as Chocolate is a luxury product. This needs to be examined sorting into economic cohorts.
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fire_lake
20 days ago
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Dark chocolate often has very high sugar levels. You might try to self correct but corporations are always on your heels.
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Tarsul
20 days ago
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Dark chocolate cannot have more sugar than 100% minus how much cacao is inside. And usually if we're talking dark chocolate then we're talking 60%+ chocolate. My personal suggestion is to go for nothing less than 80-85% chocolate, which certainly does not trigger my sugar addiction (meaning it suffices to eat one or two pieces); even more it appears to reduce my appetite (similar to tea). And also makes me feel happy (there are articles about these effects, but I don't know how good the studies behind it are, but certainly worth a mention!). Truly a gift.
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moffkalast
20 days ago
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It's usually almost exactly the amount of sugar that is not cacao if you look at the label. Milk chocolate is like over half sugar by weight.

There sad reality is that cacao is extremely bitter, so every gram of sugar is sorely needed to balance it out. I've settled on 70% cacao (so like 29% sugar) as a good balance of being dark for the endorphins and still enjoyable to even eat. Over 90% it stops even being the consistency of chocolate and starts to approach something resembling a brick of raw cocoa.

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xarope
20 days ago
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I tried a 99% Lindt bar once. Took me 6 months to finish it
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fire_lake
20 days ago
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The manufacturers are being dishonest. They will call it dark chocolate when in reality it is high sugar. Sometimes food coloring is used to make it look darker.

Dark chocolate is great, but check the label carefully!

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leptons
20 days ago
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It isn't food coloring, it's Dutch process - mixing cocoa powder with alkali makes the cocoa powder darker, and repeating the process makes it darker and darker until it's black. It alters the taste too, making it less bitter - Oreo cookies are an example of Dutched chocolate. It's possible to have an 80% light-brown chocolate bar, but the cocoa is more bitter than the darker dutched cocoa, so you don't see lighter-colored chocolate bars at 80%. Milk chocolate is typically not made with dutched cocoa powder, and it appears lighter in color, and has more sugar and milk to compensate for the more bitter flavor of the non-dutched cocoa powder.
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RankingMember
20 days ago
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If you're going to eat chocolate, dark has by far the lowest sugar content among chocolate types.
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bruce343434
20 days ago
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That's whataboutism. There's still a lot of sugar in it. Additionally, chocolate often has a high amount of heavy metals in it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzWWOQMLttE

I like chocolate as much as the next guy, but personally my skin always starts itching all over (inflammation!) and breaking out in acneic pustules on the chin, be it dark, milk, cacao powder, whatever. It's the same reaction I get from other high sugar content candy.

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d1sxeyes
20 days ago
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Dark chocolate has about half as much sugar as milk chocolate. Seems reasonable to be OK with eating a bit of dark chocolate but not milk or white.
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RankingMember
20 days ago
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> That's whataboutism.

The discussion is about chocolate in general, so noting that one form of chocolate is much lower in sugar than another is hardly "whataboutism".

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WoodenChair
20 days ago
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> Dark chocolate often has very high sugar levels.

Milk chocolate usually has higher sugar levels than dark chocolate.

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fire_lake
20 days ago
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Should’ve been more clear. You can now buy chocolate that is marketed as “dark chocolate” but has similar sugar content to milk chocolate. Manufacturers have adapted to our buying behaviour.
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wyldfire
20 days ago
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The point you cite was relative to other foods, not other chocolates.
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apothegm
20 days ago
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Depends on the specific dark chocolate. Yeah, Hershey's dark chocolate is mostly sugar. But a lot of people prefer dark chocolates with much higher cacao ratios.

85% dark chocolate has something like 3-4g sugar per serving. That’s less than what’s in a typical slice of bread in the US. Which may say more about the bread than about the chocolate — but the point is that you’re probably getting more sugar in your “healthy” lunch sandwich than in the morsel of dark chocolate you have for dessert afterwards.

(P.S. the chocolate also has more fiber than the bread!)

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litoE
20 days ago
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The dietician at the UCLA Cardio Rehab Center recommended trying 95% Cocoa chocolate if you have chocolate cravings because it has much less sugar than regular chocolate. My experience (sample size N=1) is that if I get a craving for chocolate I can eat a single square of the stuff and, because of the high cocoa content, it feels like I just ate a whole box of regular chocolates.
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neeleshs
20 days ago
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95%! Isn't that too bitter? One square of 72% works best for me, 85% is pushing it.
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programLyrique
20 days ago
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I mostly eat 90% and now find 85% too sweet (but 100% too bitter). I think our taste just adapts to the level of sweetness after some time.
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brink
20 days ago
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I used to drink coffee with sugar, until I purposefully cut it out, and now I can't stand sugar in my coffee.

I can't believe I used to drink those glass bottle starbucks coffee drinks at one point.

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ethagnawl
20 days ago
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> I can't believe I used to drink those glass bottle starbucks coffee drinks at one point.

They're unbearable -- like drinking a milkshake. It's so frustrating that convenience stores in the US rarely stock black cold coffee in cans or bottles.

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technothrasher
20 days ago
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Depends upon the bar. I find some 99% bars very enjoyable, and some 70% bars not worth eating, and vice versa. I tend to stay away from any bar with too much sugar, or with adjuncts like dairy, salt, chili, mint, orange, etc (because I find they hide the natural flavors in the chocolate itself), and then don’t worry about the percentage as much.
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worik
20 days ago
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> 95%! Isn't that too bitter? One square of 72% works best for me, 85% is pushing it.

Agreed. But I like embedded almonds too

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plorkyeran
20 days ago
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The quality of the chocolate matters a lot more when you don't have sugar covering up the problems.
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djtango
20 days ago
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Ymmv 99+ with some black coffee is delightful for me
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tptacek
20 days ago
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85 is the optimal %.
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mksreddy
20 days ago
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I found this Simple way to stop chocolate craving, don’t have one at home.
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bdangubic
20 days ago
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they don't have chocolate outside of your home where you live? you have access to them only at your house?
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Tagbert
20 days ago
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For me, those high cocoa chocolates taste unbalanced and unsatisfying. I quickly stop easting them and look for something else. If all I taste is dry and bitter, that is not what I am looking for. I want a little cocoa butter smoothness and a little sweet, too.
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justsomehnguy
20 days ago
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For me a high cocoa chocoalte tastes unbalanced... and this is why I like it. The only problem I have it's sold at the same size with 50/50 sugar cocoa chocos and that means I'm set after a few chips and the rest is wasted sitting in the corner till be disposed.

I would be fine with ~25g one (even at the 1/2 of the cost of a 'full' bar) but looks like noone is interested.

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nytesky
20 days ago
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Really depends on quality of chocolate. Trader Joe’s 85% is okay but a German bar from Lidl at 85% is amazing.

I find in all cases, mixing dark chocolate with peanut butter even without additional sugar evokes a memory of my lifetime enjoyment of Reese’s and it is delightful. I suspect hazelnut or almond are good options too, and reduce sugar ratio further.

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sgt
20 days ago
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For dark choc, going for 70% is enjoyable yet also healthy.
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gbasin
20 days ago
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i eat half a bar of it per day, amazing brain fuel
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krackers
20 days ago
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If you're eating that much, be careful about cadmium and lead.
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gbasin
18 days ago
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yep i switched to taza
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markus_zhang
20 days ago
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Just curious how much is half a bar? I bought a few 100% but they look large...
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gbasin
18 days ago
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~210 calories
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2OEH8eoCRo0
20 days ago
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Dark chocolate covered coffee beans are nice
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idontwantthis
20 days ago
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Perhaps people who enjoy less sweet foods don’t eat too much sugar.
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helph67
20 days ago
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Just a few of the many benefits... "Dark chocolate is packed full of important minerals, including iron, magnesium, zinc, copper and phosphorus. In your body, these minerals are used to support factors such as immunity (zinc), can help keep your bones and teeth healthy (phosphorus), and contribute to better sleep quality (magnesium)." https://health.clevelandclinic.org/dark-chocolate-health-ben...
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Modified3019
20 days ago
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Dark chocolate also tends to be “packed” with lead, arsenic and cadmium.

Funny enough, “organic” certified kinds can end up worse on the spectrum. Sometimes the source of the issue is the soil, other times it gets contaminated during processing.

Spices have the same problem. As well as anything concentrated, like protein powders.

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leptons
20 days ago
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Dark chocolate isn't any more likely to have lead, arsenic or cadmium, that simply isn't how it works. Dark chocolate is a result of mixing the cocoa powder with alkali, and the more it is processed with alkali, the darker it gets. All cocoa powder starts out a light brown color. The cacao beans are where the lead, arsenic and cadmium come from, as those metals are present in the soil, and it affects chocolate of any darkness.
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lifesaverluke
20 days ago
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Got a (reliable) source?
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MiguelVieira
20 days ago
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alehlopeh
20 days ago
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Whenever I see a sentence claiming something is “packed” with stuff, I wonder why they didn’t just say it contains stuff. My conclusion is that it was written by marketers to try and sell something.
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vixen99
20 days ago
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Perhaps because 'packing' kind of implies adding a few extras to what's already there. We can assume your conclusion is always true.
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Wolfenstein98k
20 days ago
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The people who consume dark chocolate (harder to overeat, and suggests less of a sweet tooth) are less likely to have Type 2 Diabetes.

What a surprise!

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zamadatix
20 days ago
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Once you start with "people who tend to eat variants of foods lower in carbs and higher in fiber tend to be less likely to have Type 2 Diabetes" you can come up with any further supposition of why.
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loehnsberg
20 days ago
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For all those screaming confounds, you can run experiments. Just please keep sampling until you get good results for milk chocolate as well.
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yosito
20 days ago
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Well, this explains why I haven't developed type 2 diabetes, my dark chocolate addiction!
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bdangubic
20 days ago
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"smoking improves short-term memory" - study sponsored in part by Philip Morris
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worik
20 days ago
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This is what I want to hear. Must be true....
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robomartin
19 days ago
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> participants who consumed ≥5 servings/week of any chocolate

Outside of what I've come to refer to the "food should be food" group, if you regularly consume five or more servings per week of any food, you will do damage to your body in one of many ways. Ice cream, processed shit, hyper-sugar-content anything, soft drinks, almost anything at fast food joints, Starbucks and more.

I adapted the "food should be food" idea from Dr. Pradip Jamnadas' "bread should be bread" statement in one of his lectures [0]. Good foods include: Meat, poultry, seafood, vegetables, fermented foods (plain yogurt, kimchi, etc.), etc. Most good food items do not need a label.

People are hurting themselves every day with highly processed industrialized food to such an extent that eating five servings of chocolate per week (of any kind) is irrelevant. In other words, this study is about noise, not signal. And, in general terms, no one food item --unless consumed to a ridiculous excess-- is responsible for negative or positive effects of note.

In other words, if you eat shit food, you are not going to fix it by taking a bunch of vitamins, magic pills, injecting yourself with the latest magical drug or eating a few servings of a magical food purported to fix all your problems.

And then there's exercise. There's a massive difference between sitting in front of a computer all day and being active.

As I got older, learned about and tried a number of approaches to health maintenance I have come to believe that most of what's out there is harmful noise. The formula is simple:

  - Be active
  - Eat real food in moderation
  - Avoid sugar (in its many forms) like your life depends on it
  - Eat fruit in moderation and when it is in season
  - Be highly selective when eating fruit:
      - There's a huge difference between bananas and avocados
  - Reject highly processed foods
  - Avoid foods with nutrition labels full of crap you don't understand
For example, peanut butter should consist of peanuts and a very small amount of salt, nothing more, anything else should stay on the shelf. Yogurt should not be full of sugar.

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAJ6-X3ESS4&list=PLN4uKfvSU2...

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zamadatix
19 days ago
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If you eat a serving of grilled chicken 5 times a week as part of an overall balanced diet you will not damage your bodily due to horrible eating... though you may find the other ~16 meals a week you're eating something without a serving of grilled chicken suddenly a lot more interesting.

"Eat a balanced diet of healthy foods" is good advice but whether or not you've achieved that has nothing to do with whether you had 5 servings of the same thing or not. You can have an extremely healthy diet and still regularly eat something many times a week, just don't try to make that something a McDonalds shake.

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robomartin
18 days ago
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Either you took my comment out of context or I did not do a good job in communicating the idea. I said:

"Outside of what I've come to refer to the "food should be food" group, if you regularly consume five or more servings per week of any food, you will do damage to your body in one of many ways"

Clarified, in simpler terms, this means: Do not eat highly processed shit food.

Restated, if you regularly consume five or more servings of shit food per week, you will do damage to your body.

There's nothing whatsoever good about these foods. Some of the damage isn't immediately visible. This is particularly true of maintaining healthy gut bacteria. The well documented connection between gut bacteria and the nervous system means that damage to gut bacteria can have far reaching consequences.

Furthermore, it takes time to repair damage such as rebuilding gut flora, fatty liver, insulin resistance, etc. There's nothing whatsoever good about regularly eating highly processed foods. Nothing.

My greater point is that health is a complex multivariate problem. The internet is full of single variable "fixes" that are nothing less than ridiculous. Eating five servings of chocolate, drinking wine once a day, drinking coffee, various supplements, etc., etc., ad nauseum. All of it nonsense. Eat real food in moderation and exercise. It's that simple.

I also recoil at some of these research projects, because, for some strange reasons, they always seem to reach ridiculous conclusions and the idea of the studies are ridiculous to start with.

Among these none has caused more damage to society than the government-pushed dietary guidelines published in the late 1970's. Since then, obesity and extreme obesity have absolutely exploded. Not to mention the whole menu of metabolic diseases that have come with a likely 10-fold increase in the consumption of sugar per capita and cocktails full of truly harmful substances.

I could go on. All I'll say is I am glad RFK is involved in potentially disrupting the way we deal with some of the things that have become leading causes of death in societies around the world.

This isn't a bad presentation on the subject:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOgH9LDwBzY

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aucisson_masque
20 days ago
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Did anyone ever looked at the back of a chocolate? They are usually around 50% sugar, 50% fat.

Even black chocolate contains quite a bit of sugar and it doesn't negate the fact that chocolate is very fat.

I don't need scientific studies to know that eating brown chocolate will make you fat and diabetic while dark chocolate will make you only big. It's nutrition 101.

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worik
20 days ago
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This bar of Whittaker's Dark Almond (https://www.whittakers.co.nz/en_AU/products/dark-almond/bloc...):

Average Quantity

Serving size

Energy 2300kJ

Protein 11.4g

Fat - total 35.3g

Saturated 14.6g

Carbohydrates - total 45.8g

Sugars 32.4g

Sodium 16mg

Yum!

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tomalbrc
20 days ago
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Why is fat bad
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aucisson_masque
20 days ago
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Fat is very caloric, fat makes you... Fat.

It's not inherently bad, it's just that when you are already overweight like for instance 60% something American, you better avoid fat.

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