▲perihelions13 hours ago
[-] US export controls splitting the EU along Iron Curtain boundaries is a philosophical repudiation of America's top diplomatic victories of the 20th century. Disturbing to see the US denying its alliance with individual members—to me, it's reminiscent of #47's comments denying US' responsibility towards Montenegro, except this one's on the other guy, the
supposedly diplomatic one, the
supposed champion of alliances in a US-led unipolar free world.
I think it must be a double shock to EU politics to see both American sides' contempt for the unity/solidarity of the EU.
It seems it's more complex than that. Greece and Portugal are also getting the Polish treatment (Tier2), so are Iceland, Switzerland and Israel
reply▲I really hope the EU sees the writing on the wall. China is going to be really happy to pull them into their sphere of influence - and in about 5-10 years I think they'll be on par with or exceed ASML's EUV process.
reply▲blackeyeblitzar12 hours ago
[-] There might be things the US knows that maybe even the Polish government doesn’t - for example maybe there are Polish firms that have business ties to China and have funneled chips or other tech there previously. Or maybe there are implications based on local laws. I’m speculating, but I think there are possibilities that explain the split.
reply▲Now you have to explain the limitations they also included on Portugal (but not on Spain). Portugal being one of the most pro USA European countries and a NATO founding member.
reply▲perihelions12 hours ago
[-] reply▲> Or Lithuania, arguably[0] the most anti-China
Also one one of the biggest resellers of various products to Russia and other economically affiliated countries they don't even produce locally.
e.g. https://www.tridge.com/news/strange-news-of-the-day-lithuani...
Also countries like Lithuania are not blacklisted. They are still allowed to buy GPUs/etc. below a certain cap. Realistically their domestic demand is nowhere near the cap. So what's' the problem exactly? (unless they want to resell those chips to third parties)
The problem is putting US allies like Lithuania and Poland in the same tier as communist countries like Laos or Vietnam.
I'd put it another way, if demand is below the cap, then why have the cap? Why destroy relations for free? It's not like you can't do something if they are found to sell chips to China.
So that companies in less reliable countries like Lithuania couldn't purchase high numbers of GPU and resell them to Russia/China/etc. through countries like Kazakhstan etc. (like they do now with other products).
> if demand is below the cap, then why have the cap?
It might be for Lithuania. But the same 50,000 cap applies to Poland.
Anyway:
> Individual companies headquartered in tier two countries—for [...] can access significantly higher limits if they apply for their own national validated end user status. That process involves making verifiable security commitments, [...]. If a company obtains this status, its chip imports won’t count toward the country’s overall maximum cap
So this isn't an export ban as such.
Maybe we just admit they are incompetent.... :-)
reply▲throwaway4847612 hours ago
[-] I doubt Lithuania has the budget to buy enough chips for the cap to matter.
reply▲I am not offering any specific or real life explanations. Just highlighting that there are many possible theoretical explanations that are reasonable but not apparent to the public. It may even just be that they started with a small whitelist that will expand over time.
reply▲You're right, stay vigilant, Who knows how many CCPs are still hiding around us? it's necessary to watch out for your allies.
Scenes like these are happening... and you could be next
Jeez what a paranoid sad viewpoint. With that approach, you will never find proper friends, lose all current ones, and attract biggest scum around. Talking about states of course.
US alone is meaningless, powerless and insignificant and needs friends and peers more desperately than ever, containing less than 5% of the world population. Sure you can go North Korea style but why lose everything that was gained so hard.
Right people are woefully ignorant of the repercussions of isolationism. CCP investments in these countries is winning them over.
reply▲> Jeez what a paranoid sad viewpoint
*whoosh*? Not sure, but that's either a videogame meme or some repurposed good ol' mid-20th Commie paranoia.
> less than 5% of the world population
85% of the world's handguns though.
(Yes, I made that up. Wikipedia says it's only 46%).
(Serious question: How do you apply export sanctions to one bit of a single market? Is this just theatre?)
CCP is winning over these countries because of their investment in them. The more we isolate the stronger CCP grip is.
reply▲And yet the ubiquity of US tech accounts for the majority of our lifestyle right now. Every US tech company going dark overnight means practically everything goes into a digital dark age.
The US has the world by the proverbial balls. It would take years before everyone can fully divest itself of US tech.
> Every US tech company going dark overnight means practically everything goes into a digital dark age.
This is a foolishly dangerous assumption. America's premier digital exports are things that many other nations consider entirely unnecessary. The App Store? Illegal in parts of Europe. ChatGPT? Questionably valuable from the start. Facebook, X/Twitter, WhatsApp and iMessage are all NSA informants. We have examples of countries kicking FAANG out of their market, and these countries are perfectly successful in the long run.
You are very focused on the American lifestyle. I suspect you would be very surprised by how little Europe cares about American software businesses.
This, but probably worse. Even the Russian government doesn’t know how many spies they have in Poland.
reply▲rich_sasha12 hours ago
[-] I suppose they want to constrain total supply, so need sheer numbers of countries for whom they can cut it. I guess from a purely utilitarian PoV, it's inevitable that a fraction of sold chips will end up in China et al. So there may be no suspicion of foul play.
But, f*k me, the optics are terrible.
Well US needs our AI experts to work in US and for US not in PL. Wojciech Zaremba or Piotr Sankowski and others.
reply▲high_na_euv10 hours ago
[-] Both need eachother.
Poland couldnt enable them, I guess
Yes you are right, limit does not matter as our academia doesn't have money to use all Tier II limit (I think not even quarter of it).
Private sector is not going to make AI data center or research center in PL because power grid is one step from collapse and nuclear power plants are "planned" but I don't believe we will have one in 10 years.
So my comment is more of a playful kickback on parent speculating about ties with China - I can put my own speculation as well.
no, the US is just washing its hands of europe/ukraine the same way it washed its hands of Afghanistan.
The EU will probably be locked out of the upcoming US negotiations with Russia the same way the Afghan government was locked out of American negotiations with the Taliban in Doha.
Temporary_3133713 hours ago
[-] I don’t think that was thought through at all, just some stupid political posturing.
First of all lots of chips are in data centres already. Google has one in Poland.
There’s freedom of movement and business across EU so any Polish citizen can set up company in Germany buy the chips and legally drive them over the border - there’s no border checks in Schengen area- bit like US interstate borders.
reply▲>any Polish citizen can set up company in Germany buy the chips and legally drive them over the borderThey wouldn't be breaking EU law in doing so, but whoever supplied this Polish citizen would be breaching the terms of their US export license or license exception. Germany has been granted a license exception specifically because the BIS trusts them to prevent this from happening.
A company in Poland is not prevented from importing advanced GPUs, but they need to apply for either a license or a Validated End-User Authorization. Likewise, Poland could apply to be recognised as an eligible destination country on the same terms as Germany if they can provide written assurances to the US government that they have taken adequate steps to prevent diversion.
I'm not a fan of these rules, but I think they're being misrepresented.
https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2025-00636.pdf
reply▲> whoever supplied this Polish citizen would be breaching the terms of their US export license or license exception
And whoever (if that's an entity trading in the EU) refuses to supply a Polish citizen on the basis of his nationality is most probably breaking the rules of the Common Market. So if nobody wants to break any laws, this ultimately ends with EU buying GPUs from China.
Are all companies in the EU legally required to do business with any company in any EU country whether they want to or not? Seems hard to believe...
reply▲They are not allowed to discriminate on the basis of nationality.
reply▲Why are you bringing nationality into this? Don't see how is this relevant.
The company in Poland might be owned and run by a German national and a Pole might be the owner of the German company. The AI chip export rules would apply exactly the same.
I think grandparent is arguing that citizenship is a protected characteristic. I think they're on iffy ground there, personally.
reply▲It's not a "protected characteristic", protection against discrimination based on nationality or residence is the basis of the Common Market and well tested in the EU courts. That's of course when selling to the consumer, might be a bit different when selling to companies.
reply▲Thanks for the correction. I'll have to take your word on that.
reply▲That's not what I have written, is it.
If a Polish citizen wants to buy a GPU in Germany and is refused on the basis on his nationality or residence, then that's against the law.
reply▲Perhaps. But this is a hypothetical situation you came up with that does not seem to be relevant.
Nobody is or is planning to restrict Polish consumers from buying GPUs from Germany.
The export regulations we're talking about:
> organizations in countries that are not close allies of the US can purchase up to 50,000 advanced GPUs per country over the next two years. Organizations can also apply for a trusted National Verified End User status that would allow them to purchase up to 320,000 advanced GPUs over the next two years.
> The vast majority of countries fall into the second tier. This group faces caps on the levels of computing power that can go to any one state: roughly around 50,000 advanced AI chips through 2027, although that can double if the state reaches an agreement with the United States. Individual companies headquartered in tier two countries—for example, companies such as Emirati tech giant G42—can access significantly higher limits if they apply for their own national validated end user status. That process involves making verifiable security commitments, both physical and cyber, and assurances that they will not use those chips in ways that violate human rights (for example, by deploying them for large-scale surveillance purposes). If a company obtains this status, its chip imports won’t count toward the country’s overall maximum cap—a move designed to create incentives for foreign firms to adopt U.S. AI standards.
> But this is a hypothetical situation
Let's just say hypothetical situations tend to happen quite often here in CEE. So in the beginning of the 90s, after the fall of communism, the borders were open but old US restrictions on buying computers were still in place for a few years. What did companies do? I think you can guess, a few enterprising guys made good money by privately buying computers in the West and selling them to companies back home. It's a long time ago, but not that long.
So I don't know, what happens when a country fills up its quota, but then the quota does not apply to small orders, so you just order in smaller batches or what.. anyway at some point Nvidia says 'No GPUs for you Poland' but that's not really true for e.g. Google that's in Poland too, and also it's not true for consumers buying GPUs. It just doesn't seem to be enforceable to me.
This is not for consumer GPUs, though. I don't think you can that easily order large numbers of H100s as a random company. And presumably at some point Nvidia will stop doing business with you (at the very least) if you keep reselling them to other countries while violating export restrictions.
reply▲reply▲I'm passing quite often one of these borders supposedly with controls and the cars are waved through by the officers. Even better, if you are passing the border on foot or on a bike, there are no officers to be seen at all. So the controls are nominally reintroduced to score some political points, most probably.
reply▲Yeah, this been my experience as well (in South/West Schengen, by car). I've seen spot checks more regularly though, compared to some years ago when there was literally nothing.
reply▲Switzerland is in Schengen and they kept border checks all the time, also strict limits on goods transferred etc.
reply▲> Switzerland is in Schengen and they kept border checks all the time
Not sure "all the time" is accurate. Two years ago I drove a car through Switzerland, entering from the South border and leaving at the North border (and ~3 weeks later, the opposite way), there was no border checks at all. The only control we encountered when traveling from Spain to Sweden (and vice-versa) by car was the quick checks at the German<>Denmark ferry border.
It's not "all the time", but any time they want. You have to declare goods all the time though (if above limit) as there are limits in place for meat, alcohol etc.
reply▲> You have to declare goods all the time though (if above limit) as there are limits in place for meat, alcohol etc.
Yes, of course, but this is true anywhere, not just for the places under the "Temporary Reintroduction of Border Control".
I live here 15 years and cross borders to France and Austria quite often. Of course not 100% of the checkpoints are manned 100% of the time, I know quite a few small ones around Geneva for example where you could smuggle truckload of heroin 24/7 for a decade without any worry of ever seeing border police. Also checks are random and not focused on specific things, sometimes romanian van chock full of stuff is stopped and sometimes its swiss family car.
But all major are and were in the past, all frontaliers coming daily for the jobs in all border cantons can tell you about wonders of morning checks corresponding massive traffic jams forming in front of the border crossings, every single day. 1/3 of my office colleagues experience this every day.
Major eastern border crossings are 100% manned though, morning day night doesn't matter.
tommiegannert11 hours ago
[-] Given they're not part of the EU, and you have to pay import duties and VAT, that makes more sense than Poland/Germany.
reply▲mytailorisrich11 hours ago
[-] Schengen applies to people. However, Switzerland is not in the EU and, crucially, not in the EU Customs Union so there are import limitations.
They do not check extra hard, though... It's been a number of years but they used to wave cars through or even have border/customs checkpoints closed depending on their 'mood'...
Of course actually seeing those border checks is another thing entirely ;)
reply▲It's highly illegal in the US to setup a business in NY (say a bodega), drive to a state with cheap cigarettes like VA, and transport those cigarettes over state lines for sale in NY.
reply▲Do you even need to drive them over the border? Plug them in in Germany, go use them from a laptop in Poland.
(I don't get export controls on cloud hardware. Unless it's protectionism designed to lock countries with cheap energy prices out of the market, of course. I could see that rationale).
That was actually my first though. Why even bother moving them physically?
reply▲Politics aside, I wonder how you would technically implement something like that. For most practical intents and purposes, goods and services flow freely inside the EU. If your company has a legal body in say both Spain and Poland, can it procure the chips? Once it has the chips, it can simply ship them to Poland, no questions asked. What if a Spanish company buys chips, then a Polish company acquires them? Etc, I don't really see what a feasible implementation of this idea would look like.
reply▲netdevphoenix12 hours ago
[-] Vendors will likely be required to state purpose and usage for the chips and the hips would probably have some kind of id or batch number so if at some point your chip ends up somewhere it's not supposed to you lose your license and maybe your whole country relevant enforcement authority reviews your activities and punishes you further. Rogue agents will likely be costly to their home countries so countries will have an incentive to prevent rule breaking.
It's like stealing an apple from a shop, sure you can do it a few times but eventually you will be arrested.
I heard from Polish news that Spanish government formed a dedicated team to negotiate with US and they succeed, yet Polish government wasn't interested in the talks at all despite being invited to.
reply▲being efficient is not a strongest side of any polish politician
reply▲I wonder if the PRC will allow Poland to buy “AI chips” (TPUs?) from them once SMIC catches up a bit more. If not Poland, what about Turkey, South Africa, India, Switzerland, Israel, and Brazil? The US policy could easily backfire.
reply▲International politics aside, what is this ban exactly about? I doubt that all GPUs or all ASICs will be banned to those countries. Is there some regulatory agency that defines what's an (advanced) AI chip? Do they go by transistor count, or by the amount of fast RAM?
reply▲Exports are obviously not banned... They added a cap and some additional restrictions on Poland and similar countries though
Specifically:
> Those on the tier two list will see the number of AI chips - called graphics processing units (GPUs) - capped at 50,000 unless they have a special license.
Right, does that include $30 NVIDIA GPUs?
reply▲>
It therefore came as a shock when Warsaw was the most notable European Union victim of the decision by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden last week to cap coveted AI chip exports.The link to the decision (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases...) already ends in a 404 error (with an unmistakably Trump-like text "Page not found - go home"). But maybe Poland can set its hopes on Trump willing to overturn all of his predecessor's decisions, even though the current Polish government is probably not to his liking?
netdevphoenix12 hours ago
[-] reply▲Something about the event of yesterday after which the whole site was replaced.
reply▲netdevphoenix11 hours ago
[-] Is that a normal thing? Does the whole site gets replaced after a new president starts serving?
reply▲reply▲bryanlarsen8 hours ago
[-] I'm sure Poland is going to be fuming a lot more about Trump's plans for NATO, Ukraine and tariffs than Biden's AI block.
reply▲Gravityloss12 hours ago
[-] There's server industry in Poland too. Ie many servers provided by big mainstream vendors, located now in data centers around the world, were actually assembled in Poland.
reply▲Dell factory in Łódź (Lodz) for example
reply▲Does seem strange given that Poland is probably stepping up more than anyone else on Defence. Ie exactly what us wanted
reply▲wonder what geopolitical dynamic is at play
are there any nations that are rivals or allies with Poland the US is thinking about
Argonaut99812 hours ago
[-] I think the USA just wants to keep Europe militarily and economically weak. Poland’s military is soon to be the strongest in Europe (if it isn’t already).
I think Europe, NATO notwithstanding, needs to realise the USA isn’t a wholly reliable ally, especially under Trump.
It doesnt necessarily want weak, but it does want to prioritize its own military requirements and it does want European dependence on the US.
Controls like these look like they are designed to be repealed if Europe does as it is told and increases defence spending to 5% of gdp (presumably by spending more on other American weapons).
Brzezinski wrote about US not wanting an integrated Eurasia (the heartland), so that Europe can be more dependant on the US. Germany used to have more integration which make its industry thrive because it can take advantage of Russia's cheap energy and China's industrial goods for its industry. Ukraine war completely changed that, which marks the first time since World War II that Germany has faced two consecutive years of economic decline.
reply▲That argument would make more sense if they did not include Poland, the biggest per capita spender and a staunch US ally.
reply▲They're still not even close to 5%.
The US doesnt treat any of its puppets particularly well. America treats its European allies a bit like Moscow treats its Belarussian ally. With the new administration that is becoming clearer than ever.
Calling Poland an American puppet state is a stretch (basically incorrect).
While the US can exert a lot of influence, Poland (and others) are not puppet states-- there is no direct US control over government/elections, no dependence on the US for those governments and no US control over polish law.
Being a weaker member of an alliance does not make you a puppet.
There's probably a lot more influence deeper within EU institutions than you realize. What happened in Romania (election cancelled "because tiktok") is also reflection of American tendrils.
reply▲dingdingdang1 hour ago
[-] Could you elaborate on these tendrils (?) - I haven't looked at the Romanian situation from that vantage point.
reply▲Poland is aiming for 4.7% in 2025 and is supporting Trumps proposal for 5% for NATO.
Meanwhile Italy is allowed to buy chips with 1.5% defense spending.
It doesn't make sense to think that defense spending is the criterion used to select the countries.
probablybetter12 hours ago
[-] They are dodging a bubble and don't even know it.
If America thinks it can base future prosperity on the AppStore and AI, it should think again, because actual innovations are needed, and this low-hanging-fruit tech-bro-fantasy investment cakewalk will not provide anything but pain upon the inevitable comedown and disillusionment. You will not be able to sell products nor services with the term AI anywhere near them in the very near future. (already the case amongst a certain percentage of us)
reply▲surgical_fire12 hours ago
[-] A good reminder for EU to reduce their reliance on the US, and look for other business partners.
reply▲such as?
reply▲surgical_fire8 hours ago
[-] There's a whole world, full of people beyond US borders.
Many of those countries have great agricultural potential, many have excellent industrial production, many have an educated population, many have emerging markets, those are great to find new consumers.
In fact, there's a huge opportunity to basically everyone if the new US president goes all the way in his isolationist and confrontational ideas. Something I am kind of hoping for, I won't pretend otherwise.
The Mercosur-EU Trade Agreement is a good start.
reply▲DataDaemon12 hours ago
[-] Poland dream is to be 53rd state, just after Canada and Greenland.
reply▲DataDaemon12 hours ago
[-] German doesn't like USA = tier 1
Poland where 90% people support USA no matter what = tier 2
Seems legit.
reply▲StefanBatory12 hours ago
[-] As a Pole I find it sad but I'm not surprised at all over this decision.
reply▲My prediction: as European countries feel increasingly estranged from the US they will gravitate towards China. Some recent statements from Trump makes you wonder there is any friendliess remaining in the relationship. Perhaps better to play out US and China against each other, a little bit like Turkey acts visavi NATO on one hand and Russia on the other.
reply▲netdevphoenix11 hours ago
[-] I don't think so especially given its current geopolitical activities. Europe will likely work towards building a homegrown chip industry.
reply▲Doesn't it go directly against EU common market rules?
I mean, I can start a company in Germany with the sole purpose to buy chips and sell them to a Polish company. If EU interferes that would be breaking the main purpose of it - a common market and free movement of people and goods.
It's a slap towards EU from Biden's admin. Thankfully as of today they are gone. Let's hope Trump's administration presents a more EU friendly view on this issue.
realusername12 hours ago
[-] I also expect it to fail, there's no way you can differentiate EU countries with the common market, there's no customs anyways.
reply▲The thing is the USA can target the individual companies selling goods outside of the designated countries. It would be hard to monitor and enforce but the mechanism is - if you'd like to do any business with the US, you have to play by their rules.
reply▲You can just put the datacentre in Germany or the Netherlands and use it in Poland.
reply▲Or in UK, or in the US (latency doesn't matter that much in case of LLMs). That would all be in line with the policy that restricted physical movement of these chips.
reply▲> Let's hope Trump's administration presents a more EU friendly view on this issue.
Is that likely?
Previous Trump's admin was more friendly than Obama's/Biden's towards Poland. For example they removed need to apply for a visa to visit; the process to get those was time consuming and frankly humiliating. Another thing is that Trump's insistence on increase military spending for EU countries is also in line with Polish foreign policy so overall there is a chance I guess.
I mean I don't expect Poland being anywhere high on priority list but we already got slapped by Biden's admin so it can only get better.
reply▲> with the sole purpose to buy chips and sell them to a Polish company
You can. Good luck getting Nvidia/etc. to sell them to you though.
> Let's hope Trump's administration presents a more EU friendly view on this issue.
Is this sarcasm?
Trump's been a staunch supporter of Poland and has granted Visa waivers for entry into the US for its citizens.
Trump, in my view, doesn't see EU as enemy but an ally that's been taking advantage of the US especially on trade and defense spending.
Some of the gripes, which are valid:
- U.S. provides bulk of the defense for NATO at the moment
- EU currently imposes a 10 percent tariff on US cars
> EU currently imposes a 10 percent tariff on US cars
And it's 45% on Chinese EVs. 10% isn't that high and it's not like there is a lot of demand for American cars in Europe anyway (American companies besides Tesla hardly produces any cars these days anyway, unless you count trucks)
It's mostly defence against those pissed of by the US though, so seems fair.
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