This entire hype cycle has long been completely disconnected from reality. I've watched a lot of hype waves, and I've never seen one that oscillates so wildly.

I think you're right that OpenAI isn't as hurt by DeepSeek as the mass panic would lead one to believe, but it's also true that DeepSeek exposes how blown out of proportion the initial hype waves were and how inflated the valuations are for this tech.

Meta has been demonstrating for a while that models are a commodity, not a product you can build a business on. DeepSeek proves that conclusively. OpenAI isn't finished, but they need to continue down the path they've already started and give up the idea that "getting to AGI" is a business model that doesn't require them to think about product.