Did an LLM help write Trump's trade plan?
8 points
6 days ago
| 1 comment
| garymarcus.substack.com
| HN
Ukv
6 days ago
[-]
Prompt that caused models to give similar formulae:

> > What would be an easy way to calculate the tariffs that should be imposed on other countries so that the US is on even-playing fields when it comes to trade deficit? Set minimum at 10%

The claim that "All the LLMS gave the exact retarded formula" doesn't seem fully true based on those screenshots - Claude instead gives `deficit / total bilateral trade` and Grok gives `10 + (deficit / total bilateral trade) * s`, whereas the Whitehouse's formula was `deficit / imports`.

I think similarity could just be down to similar formulae being the most obvious/rudimentary answers when you're specifically asking for an "easy way" to set tariffs based on trade deficit, and not some LLM-specific quirk that would indicate LLM usage. There is also the possibility that these models, using RAG, were basing their answers off of the Whitehouse's formula as opposed to vice versa.

I do still consider it plausible that they used an LLM though, just that this isn't a smoking gun.

reply