Currently does it for 1000+ US companies and specifically earnings related filings. By US companies, I mean the ones that are obliged to file SEC filings.
This was the result of almost a year long effort and hundreds of prototypes :)
It currently auto-publishes for 1000 ish US companies by market cap, relies on 8-K filing as a trigger.
e.g. https://www.signalbloom.ai/news/NVDA will take you to NVDA earnings
Would be grateful to get some feedback. Especially if you follow a company, check its reports out. Thank you!
Some examples: https://www.signalbloom.ai/news/AAPL/apple-q1-eps-beats-desp...
https://www.signalbloom.ai/news/NVDA/nvidia-revenue-soars-ma...
https://www.signalbloom.ai/news/JPM/jpm-beats-estimates-on-c... (JPM earnings from Friday)
Hallucination note: https://www.signalbloom.ai/hallucination-benchmark
Things I was also contemplating to implement you can freely steal:
1. Giving a list of potential interesting investments - these could also be behind paywall.
2. Summarize based on sectors to see where there's downturns coming - again maybe paywall this
3. Connect with news-sites or twitter etc.. to see what is happening and what is the sentiment. This is a lot harder as you'll need to either scrape or pay to get that info.
Best of luck
The first one is an interesting idea, but offering any real financial advice is regulated, which is a tread carefully territory
Second one is achievable and a good one at that. In fact, there is a lot of canonical data out there that when used carefully can provide a very nuanced picture of the current state of economy.
Third one, currently I have just a twitter account where the earnings reports are auto posted the second they are ready (that is, until I run out of free api limits). Their API cost for at the higher end makes it only viable if I am doing it full time and there was a clear edge by analyzing the data. My gut feeling is, most of the work will go into filtering out low signal posts idk
I would go for it and put a disclaimer, or I would just incorporate in a country where there's no issues with these things.
all this is hard of course to provide good value, but worthwhile.
Twitters' cost is insane right now, I had quite a few ideas for twitter integrations but they would easily cost thousands per month just to access their API.
I looked into https://github.com/d60/twikit - might not be suitable but you can definitely play around with it. Just don't use your official account as I got shadow banned using it unfortunately.
It's not actually about personal suits, financial advice may fall into financial services regulations and that's regulated by the government of the US, EU, etc. so wherever the company is registered may have issues in addition to the potential of the regulations applying to the individual and not shielded by the company.
Just two cents based on my usual workflow --
1. I like to compare companies within the same industry, so it would be good if i can ask follow up questions after reading a report like "How does company Y compare with company X on XX metrics?"
2. I understand that the reports are generated by a model; if that is true, maybe you could cross-reference the fillings with their corresponding earnings call transcripts (should be available for free on many investment websites) and highlight what is being discussed/asked in the calls as well
Again, thank you for the great work. Already pinned your site to my browser's investment workspace XD
1. These summaries were terrible. 2. The economics of these summaries was to get into Google News, spam newsfeeds, and use this to drive traffic to your paid product. This business model stopped working when Google News stopped accepting new sources for their Finance feed...because it was full of spam (I worked for a company that tried to start in this area with human writers, didn't work because they couldn't get onto Google).
Simply Wall St was one company that made tens of millions doing this, there were many others...but none were doing anything that is related to what OP is doing.
Every time someone will tell you something can't be done...this very clearly can work, it is not easy but ad revenue for financial services is still completely ludicrous and most services doing this are complete garbage (the news articles above the OP is producing are far from it, I worked in equity research, this is better than most journalism in the space...which is now non-existent...and probably at the level of a junior analyst).
If they were reaching out to not particularly special undergraduates twenty years ago, I'm guessing it goes back at least thirty.
Charts like that show more detail sure, but everyone freaks out in reaction to them. Always zero out your graphs.
Great way to end up with useless graphs where you have a tiny line at the top that's been compressed to the point where you can't see any changes...
The "rule" about ensuring axes are zeroed is for bar charts not line graphs.
For instance, if we're charting someone's body temperature, we would likely fix our y-axis to 80-110.
How so? Surely both will show a 10% movement?
And yes, all charts would automatically start from 0 as a side effect.
this would be a good toggle but both matter
Form 10-K is usually what you'd need to parse for those, maybe with recent stats taken from the 10-Q.
It'd be really great if one could get a report on a company in an industry they're unfamiliar with, with statistics like profit margin available at a glance, and a good description of how they actually operate, what is important to them, what areas of the business actually bring in the money (this is often surprising!) etc.
[1] E.g., https://s27.q4cdn.com/632832908/files/doc_financials/2024/q4...
The plan is to address all SEC forms anyways so this will be a natural extension
https://boards.industrial-linguistics.com/
It only looks at information about directors on company boards, and unlike your much better project, I don't have any clear idea how to commercialise it.
I have to build a project for data analysis with ML (and optionally AI) for a course and certification I am passing, this is a great inspiration. I will probably do something simpler on European stocks.
You say it was a year long effort, was it full time ? Do you have an estimation of how many hours you spent on it ? Did you do it alone ?
For European stocks, is there a common EU regulatory body where all filings are submitted? That would be a good start
PS if the next question is whether I’d pay for it, the answer is likely no ;)
A suggestion: I forget the HTML tag off the top of my head, but there is something you can do that turns off the keyboard autocorrect. Setting the search box input type to something specific or something like that… stock tickers aren’t dictionary words :)
P.S. If it wasn't for @dang putting it in the second-chance-pool, this post would have never been seen by more than 2 people.
Purely from a technical standpoint, things aren't that difficult really. I'd recommend get yourself an API account with all major providers (because each frontier LLM evidently has their own strengths and weaknesses) and start experimenting with your data. The feeling you'll get when you first get an API response will keep you going! :)
Having said that, a caveat is, LLMs do hallucinate from time to time. If your data needs accuracy, definitely don't do the "throw everything at LLMs and let them do the work" but I'm sure you'll figure it out from trial and error. Good luck!
Wouldn't it be better to use something like openrouter.ai which gives access to lots of different endpoints? In my experiments that is what I am using, wondering if there are good reasons to go to direct API usage.
I'm pretty familiar with how LLM's work, it was more of "how do I create sites/apps" with LLM/AI backends. Will check out the youtube. Thanks again.
Minor suggestion: I would make the home page feed show popular stocks (so that it is more interesting to new visitors and also engaging to regular visitors). You could just pick 100 stock symbols or combine that with something like what you are seeing people search for (I would manually check the popular search ones - some may not make sense to add to the home page feed).
In theory, this is what value investors are doing to some extent. However, embedding vectors often to do match intuition very well.
If you are unfamiliar this was passed mostly secretly in 2019 during the whole Kavanaugh confirmation, almost without issue crossing party lines. Its made every SEC required statement effectively worthless for the entities involved in any project or work that touches on national security.
There are at least 7 of the largest companies that make up the majority of the DOW/other indexes that may be covered.
I'm trying to do something unrelated with public companies, where did you get a list of all companies filing with the SEC? Or was it built based on whoever filed 8-Ks? A google search leads me to this list [0] but it's missing a few companies.
There is an API, and daily historical snapshots available.
Automate this maybe ? Don't follow the news because you'll never fully understand the implications: firing half the employees could be good news because it relieves cash stress or bad news because it means no more sells of the company's product. Better to at least just look at the post-news trend and position with it?
I think most people end up with a timing issue: they want to predict time of the change of movement but why don't they just predict the price ? Remove time, and you'll never "lose money" - but your time-value will maybe be less efficient than positioning on an ETF and waiting.
Basically, if one could do a trading robot making profit overall, based on public news, it would already be done, and therefore you would be unable to compete. Flash news, it's already been done. You're like a little cell appearing in an ocean of sharks, the evolution of your competition already outpaced you.
e.g. this NVDA earnings report: https://www.signalbloom.ai/news/NVDA/nvidia-revenue-soars-ma...
beyond the headline revenue/EPS miss/beat which is trivial, it correctly identifies a trend of margin compression and charts it. It also identifies the gaming revenue divergence from the datacenter revenues and so on. You can check out pretty much any report and odds are, you'll find things that weren't called out in the earnings release
Then you have a bunch of third party providers that offer APIs that return cleaned up SEC filings and charge like few thousand dollars a year. The downside is the latency they add.
https://www.sec.gov/search-filings/public-dissemination-serv...
If this is a side project, that's amazing and I love it. If you did want to take it further though, I would though encourage you to spend some time interviewing potential users and thinking through how you are creating value.
As a fundamentals investor, to win in stockpicking (especially against quant traders), you need to get really deep into the details. As mentioned there are lots of tools that summarize earnings calls, but more importantly, I don't think summarizing earnings calls or releases are super useful for investors.
There are basically two ways to build useful software for investors. One way is to create summaries / off-the-shelf analyses that tell investors if a company is good or bad. Right now as-is, that is sort of where this product is. The problem is, an earnings call summary is insufficient. Yes, AAPL revenue may be up 4.0%, but the fact that you figured that out in 15 seconds with an LLM is not a differentiator since everyone else can figure it out in 45 seconds by just doing mental math. And, what did _you_ expect it to be? Very different trade answer if you thought it should be down 10% or up 40% and it in reality hit 4.0%.
I think generally this is also tough because the people really good about building recommenders (black box or otherwise) just work at hedge funds and make a ton of money for themselves / their clients. It is almost always going to be more profitable to do this, in no small part because once you reveal your secret sauce to the market, it gets priced in.
There's also the issue of user personas. There is no one generic investment strategy. A "good" investment is very different for a long-only vs. a long-short vs. a macro fund vs. an activist fund (and yes these are not mutually exclusive at all).
So, I think in order for this to become truly useful you need to make it more of an interactive tool to allow people to run their own analysis (vs having a "one size fits all" analysis). A few ways you could do this:
1) investments are done behind an investment thesis. Can you TRACK theses over time? For example, a merger arb thesis might be that a big M&A deal is on track (or not on track) to close. Can you track my THESIS, which almost becomes a detailed LLM prompt. E.g., "I think that Company X's acquisition of Company Y will close at the current offered price of $Z by date A, and key milestones are (1) regulatory approval on or around date B, (2) stock price converging toward the offered price of $Z as date A approaches, (3) positive sentiment on earnings calls about the acquisition by both Company X and Company Y"; let me know if earnings releases or calls or 8-Ks should make me update my thesis ("8-K came out that said that the target date of A has slipped by 90 days"). Or, "Company X said they bought Company Y and at the time expected revenues of $Z in three years; what compound quarterly growth rate does this imply" and then track that every quarter to see if they are on track or not
2) Can you help me track a specific question through each quarter—almost like automated BI / reported? Bloomberg/CapIQ/etc. will do this for GAAP metrics like revenue or COGS but often companies will report bespoke metrics. Can you help me track WeWork's community-adjusted EBITDA (lol) every quarter? Can you help me track business unit non-GAAP EBITDA with an addback for taxes every quarter? These are things that won't show up in your GAAP 3-statement model but for _individual_ companies may be super important
3) similarly can you help me run comparisons across companies? E.g., can I compare Vornado's total revenue (almost all office) to Bridge's office segment's revenue to SL Green's total revenue (also almost all office) and every quarter see how their relative revenue (market share) is changing? What about their occupancy and rent levels?
4) generic RAG/natural language search (when did SmartRent talk about their acquisition of Planon), although as noted, many competitors are doing this
All of the above are things that analysts do in real life and basically just track manually in Excel.
Again don't mean to be discouraging—I posted this in part because I think there is a ton of value here to (a) having a clean pipeline and (b) having a basic working knowledge of applying LLMs in a useful way. If helpful I'm happy to discuss more.
4 would be a heavier lift because it goes beyond the basic skill set of an average data/junior analyst.
Target shops don’t have time to dedicate to elbow grease
Also, rename "News" to "Latest Filings" or something more direct. Generally websites use "news" to refer to news about themselves, which nobody cares about.
(1) explicitly illegal insider trading where you trade on MNPI and hope no one notices (e.g., CEO sells shares before bad-news results). I don't think you could track this because usually the person trading is either not a prolific insider (a janitor who sees a draft report in the trash can) and therefore how would you track them OR a prolific insider using some sort of shell (e.g., wife/cousin) [or some combo]
(2) totally legal and ethical "insider trading." The SEC allows insiders to trade, you just have to do it with proper disclosure and in open periods. As noted Unusual Whales and others track this because in theory this is a signal—if mgmt is selling does that mean they no longer believe long-term in this company (irrespective of near-term MNPI)? The flip side obviously is that management cannot eat shares and sometimes wants liquidity for lifestyle reasons.
(3) everything in between—shadow trading, auto selldowns that are turned off if you realize there is good news, etc.
Tracking (2) is as mentioned kind of useful for investors but I would argue not a great signal, tracking (1) is mostly useless because it's a post-hoc analysis (most analyses here are—there was a massive spike in trades before/after a big announcement, or more obviously, a big block trade) and tracking (3) is similar to tracking (2). Btw there is also a lot of academic evidence that insider traders of type (1) overestimate the importance and misestimate the impact of their MNPI—knowing J&J had a drug that passed FDA may not matter if (a) there are twenty drugs that failed and (b) the street assumed it would pass. (none of this is legal or trading advice)
The problem is as a private citizen/company (1) you have no idea who placed the trades and (2) even if you did, you can't enforce the law.
Although, it is not as exciting as some make it sound. Most insider trading reports are utterly boring. There are a small percentage that are valuable though