Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers
48 points
1 hour ago
| 9 comments
| whitehouse.gov
| HN
C-x_C-f
1 hour ago
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Love the irony of the numerically illiterate argument at the start:

> The number of foreign STEM workers in the United States has more than doubled between 2000 and 2019, increasing from 1.2 million to almost 2.5 million, while overall STEM employment has only increased 44.5 percent during that time.

Knowing that STEM employment only increased 44.5 percent doesn't tell you anything about the comparison if you don't know the absolute size. Turns out that there are around 11M STEM jobs in the US [0] so the increase in jobs is actually higher for American citizens (approx 2.7M vs 1.3M for foreign workers).

Maybe the White House needs more numerically skilled people?

[0] https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/stem-employment.htm

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sokoloff
1 hour ago
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If I'm concerned with the overall citizen population's job prospects, the relative size of the increases matters more to me than the absolute change.

If I created 1 nepotistic software job for my kid and 3 jobs for software professionals not related to me, I think very few people would look at that and say "Oh, well three times as many non-nepotistic jobs were created, so we can ignore the one..."

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C-x_C-f
1 hour ago
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How are H-1Bs comparable to nepotism?
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sokoloff
1 hour ago
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Don't focus on the nepotism aspect specifically, but rather that job group in one distinct, identifiable population (my kid or H1Bs) grew at a far higher rate than for the general (not my kids or not H1Bs) employment market, despite the latter experiencing more absolute growth.
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C-x_C-f
46 minutes ago
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I still don't see what the issue is.

Consider two scenarios:

1. H-1Bs get massively reduced over the next five years. Tech sector crisis ensues due to market shocks. Foreign workers decrease. American workers go up by 25% (~2.5M).

2. H-1B numbers stay as is. Tech sector relatively unperturbed. Foreign workers increase by 50% (~1.3M). American workers increase by 30% (~3M).

Wouldn't you argue that 2 is preferable to 1?

(I'm not saying that a crisis will happen if H-1Bs end, I'm just presenting two scenarios with different relative increases that I believe prove my point)

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sokoloff
39 minutes ago
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Are you asking if I would prefer a tech market that didn't experience a crisis over one that did and from my answer of "of course I do", believe that proves some unrelated point?
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C-x_C-f
28 minutes ago
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The relevant variable here is the increase in jobs. The crisis in my example is just some exogenous variable. I'm genuinely trying to understand your point. In my view, if one cared more about difference in relative increases inter-group rather than absolute differences intra-group, then scenario 1 would be preferable.
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hilsdev
12 minutes ago
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I too am capable of semi random number generation
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DaveExeter
51 minutes ago
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Maybe because nepotism leads to untalented people getting jobs?

I think the $100K fee is a good idea. If these H-1Bs are exceptional talent, paying $100k to employ one is truly a bargain.

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seanmcdirmid
28 minutes ago
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What if China only charges $1k or even free for the same people? I mean, they are doing lots of AI work now also, and you can already see a few foreign programmers in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. What is stopping Apple, Microsoft, Meta, or Amazon from doing even more work in India or other countries because they can't get the people they need in the US, or its just cheaper to setup more research jobs in Stockholm or London than it is in Seattle or San Jose?

Its not like it isn't already a work market for talent. $100k is a significant amount of friction to overcome.

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C-x_C-f
39 minutes ago
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Do you think that the employee pool overall would be more or less talented without the H-1B program? What about the tails of the distributions?
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yahway
16 minutes ago
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America got to the moon without H1-Bs. America doesn't need H1-Bs. America just needs a little wake up call, which the H1-Bs did. Now watch things unfold as an informed person.
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C-x_C-f
15 minutes ago
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> America got to the moon without H1-Bs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Paperclip

From the linked article:

> The operation played a crucial role in the establishment of NASA and the success of the Apollo missions to the Moon.

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rco8786
39 minutes ago
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They all know that. These are politicians. They know they’re misrepresenting the data. They don’t care, they consider it to be part of the job, and they’re not wrong. That’s it.
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C-x_C-f
34 minutes ago
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I did considered that but then went with Hanlon's razor [0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor

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chickenzzzzu
48 minutes ago
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Why should the number of foreign workers here be anything greater than zero?

Why specifically, should the American employee, American homebuyer/renter, American college student uniquely have to compete with the entire world, when nearly no other countries on Earth have to, especially not at this scale?

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jonstewart
8 minutes ago
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If there such a thing as American exceptionalism, if the USA has an edge, it is immigration. Without it, our demographic future is cooked. So, that’s why.
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Jalad
59 minutes ago
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Bsky thread which reported a bunch of details I didn't see in other outlets https://bsky.app/profile/reichlinmelnick.bsky.social/post/3l...
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nonethewiser
1 hour ago
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H1-B program is exploited. They are not supposed to be hired unless there aren't Americans who can fill the role. There should be a large fee associated with it.
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jonstewart
7 minutes ago
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Sure. But a Friday night massacre isn’t exactly a great policy fix though, n’est-ce pas?
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alephnerd
17 minutes ago
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Find me a dozen new grads with exploit development experience or OS internals knowhow beyond a summary course.

I can do that in Tel Aviv over a week.

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nis0s
51 minutes ago
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If the cost benefit analysis for employers still shows that H1-Bs are cheaper, how will this offset H1-B exploitation? My guess is that this will suppress STEM wages artificially to account for paying a one-time fee for an H1-B, but hiring someone for 1+ years at that suppressed rate will be cheaper. Employers will blame AI for decrease in STEM wages, of course. A complementary solution is to add the $100k fee, and to restrict H1-B per employer per year, or something like that.
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alephnerd
48 minutes ago
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In 2025, the decision isn't hiring someone on an H1B versus a citizen - the cost is mostly a wash.

The decision is hiring in the US (visa or citizen) versus hiring abroad.

Given that a large number of EMs, PMs, Directors, and even VPs are on some sort of immigration or work visa, this makes it easier to incentivize you as an employer to move some of them back to India or Czechia to open a GCC. This is what has been happening for the past 5 years now.

On top of that, vast swathes of STEM academia are dependent on H1B. You simply aren't going to find enough American citizens with a background in (say) battery chemistry to become a tenure track professor versus from Korea, Japan, or China.

Now you basically created an incentive for large swathes of junior faculty in STEM subfields to return to Asia, leading to a massive reverse brain drain.

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nis0s
5 minutes ago
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> The decision is hiring in the US (visa or citizen) versus hiring abroad.

True, but there’s a balance that employers have to maintain to get some in-state advantages from local or state governments for job creation.

That said, it makes more sense for America to get trainers or professors for niche subfields than actual workers so you can create homegrown talent, not sure why that isn’t done more.

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gnabgib
1 hour ago
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The $100K H1-B origin, the discussion on the front page continues (550 points, 3 hours ago, 601 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45305845
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jakozaur
1 hour ago
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Does it apply to people who planned to start on Oct 1, 2025?

With the current system, you must apply in April if you succeed in the lottery, and then you can start in a few months in October, once per year.

Looks very uncomfortable for those who were about to relocate.

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Izikiel43
1 hour ago
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Looks like it:

a) Pursuant to sections 212(f) and 215(a) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), 8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 1185(a), the entry into the United States of aliens as nonimmigrants to perform services in a specialty occupation under section 101(a)(15)(H)(i)(b) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1101(a)(15)(H)(i)(b), is restricted, except for those aliens whose petitions are accompanied or supplemented by a payment of $100,000 — subject to the exceptions set forth in subsection (c) of this section. This restriction shall expire, absent extension, 12 months after the effective date of this proclamation, which shall be 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on September 21, 2025.

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ajaimk
1 hour ago
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Seems to be limited to H1B applicants who are outside the country. If I'm reading this correctly, it doesn't impact renewals for those in the country.
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whatever1
1 hour ago
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You cannot renew a visa (any visa) in the US. You need to exit the country and apply to a US consulate.
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psidium
48 minutes ago
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Yes, but a visa stamp renewal is a visa “application” while the document that allows the application is the “petition”, which is the word used on this text and the step requiring the payment.
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cvhc
22 minutes ago
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"Section 1. Restriction on Entry. (a) ... the entry into the United States..., is restricted, except for those aliens whose petitions are accompanied or supplemented by a payment of $100,000".

OK, if I consider this interpretation, which of the following do you think will apply to already-approved H-1B petitioners: 1. Existing H-1B holder can amend their already-approved petition by "supplementing a payment" to become eligible for a visa and re-entry. 2. It's not possible to amend an already-approved H-1B petition. So existing H-1B holders can never satisfy the requirement. They cannot re-enter with H-1B visa anymore. 3. This EO is not retrospective. So already-approved H-1B petitioners (with or without visa) are fine.

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cadamsdotcom
1 hour ago
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They do well explaining how H-1b is broken - but adding a $100k petition fee only breaks it worse.

A real fix would be fantastic.

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nonethewiser
1 hour ago
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Why does it break it worse?
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alephnerd
56 minutes ago
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This does nothing to stop the rise of GCCs.

In tech industry, we already began slowing down H1B hiring after COVID, and remote work only exacerbated that trend (I can't justify spending $150k plus an additional 25-35% in withholdings, medical, and benefits when I can hire 2-3 people with a similar outlay in Praha or Bangalore or Tel Aviv).

At least with H1B hiring, there was some incentive for industries like cybersecurity to keep some engineering headcount in the US. Now I have no reason not to completely offshore to Tel Aviv or Praha becuase the talent is there and not in the US.

This H1B change does nothing to solve the pipeline crisis nor does it solve offshoring (though even with a services tax, I'd be hard pressed to find the same ecosystem in the US like I can in Israel or Poland or even India for significant swaths of cybersecurity).

Finally, charging $100k per year per H1B employee means I can now justify a $1-10M investment in building a GCC abroad in CEE or India and availing tax benefits, subsidies, and tax holidays.

All this did is now incentivize me to push my portfolio companies to move hiring almost entirely abroad and choose a couple of high level PMs and EMs on H1Bs who would be open to becoming a Director of PM or Director of Engineering at a GCC abroad.

On top of that, the cream of the crop you want with a brain drain like academics in STEM fields, nurses, and doctors are sponsored on H1Bs.

America has a pipeline and skills problem in a lot of STEM fields and subfields, and coding bootcamp grads aren't going to cut it.

Cutting down on processing abuse by consultancies is something everyone can get behind, but this is literally the stupidest way to approach that problem.

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ojbyrne
24 minutes ago
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What’s a GCC?
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alephnerd
9 minutes ago
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Global Capability Center - think offshoring, except now you have a VP or GM assigned at that office, and a couple of P/L owning PMs and Eng Directors.

Basically, back office work offshoring like in the 2000s is dead. Now entire revenue generating product lines are being produced by offshore teams.

GCP's Security and K8s portfolio is a good example of that or that team at Facebook's Infra Silicon team in Bangalore.

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utrechtNL
46 minutes ago
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Good. Skilled Indians/Chinese/Europeans should go back to their countries, build their own tech and compete with the US.

People are smoking if they think “talents” would still want to stay in the US given this series of policies (i.e. recent cuts/restrictions on science funding, international students, and visas) from Trump government.

This is a good time for EU to build its own digital economy.

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alephnerd
45 minutes ago
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Pretty much. This is basically a free "Thousand Talents" program for much of the EU, India, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Israel, and others.

This is ridiculously stupid given how vast swathes of industries we want to redevelop need talent from our partners in the EU, Japan, Korea (still opposed to Hyundai's visa shenanigans, but two wrongs don't make a right - also interesting how HN is so positive about this but so negative about that), etc

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