points
7 days ago
| 1 comment
| HN
Not sure what the causal connection would be there.
toomuchtodo
7 days ago
[-]
If women feel like it is no longer safe to marry because they will be forced into equal custody, those rates would decline. Safer to stay single and childfree (from a risk management perspective).

Not that this is too far off from existing trends, so I'm unsure if measuring in Kentucky alone is enough to control against the broader national trends:

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/womens-impact-on-the-eco...

> 45% of prime working age women (ages 25-44) will be single by 2030—the largest share in history—up from 41% in 2018.

https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/50th-edition-spring-2025

> Just 48% of young Americans say having kids is important—the lowest ranking among the six life goals we measured. It signifies a generational shift away from traditional family formation.

reply
potato3732842
7 days ago
[-]
>If women feel like it is no longer safe to marry because they will be forced into equal custody

The word choice of your comment is beyond absurd and your usual schtick of cherry picking links to back up your point doesn't make it any less absurd.

It's mostly men who don't wanna get married and/or start a family and do all that stuff because (in states that have yet to reform their laws) they stand to lose half their shit and not even have half a kid to show for it.

I have zero sympathy for people, of any gender, for whom not being on the favorable end of unequal treatment in divorce/custody is the marginal difference that makes them not get married.

reply
bryanlarsen
7 days ago
[-]
> It's mostly men who don't wanna get married and/or start a family and do all that stuff because (in states that have yet to reform their laws) they stand to lose half their shit and not even have half a kid to show for it.

> I have zero sympathy for people, of any gender, for whom not being on the favorable end of unequal treatment in divorce/custody is the marginal difference that makes them not get married.

I guess you have zero sympathy for a large chunk of men then, because first you say that men don't get married because they lose their stuff in a divorce, and then you say that you have zero sympathy for people who don't get married because of it.

reply
MarkusQ
7 days ago
[-]
Simply on semantic grounds, this is an unreasonable conclusion. "I will not do X unless I am given an unfair advantage" is not at all the same as "I will not do X if the system is unfairly biased against me".
reply
saghm
7 days ago
[-]
"I would get married but I don't trust my potential spouse not to screw me over" is just not something that requires sympathy. If that's how someone feels, it's probably better for everyone (them, their spouse, and society as a whole) that they don't get married. There's no virtue in being married without a strong basis of mutual trust, nor is there any shame in remaining unmarried because you haven't found someone right for you
reply
spwa4
4 days ago
[-]
Oh don't worry. That's what "de-facto" relationship legislation is for.

https://www.fcfcoa.gov.au/fl/pubs/defacto

You can now be forced to pay child support - including for kids that aren't your own kids - without ever being married.

There are people who'll do anything for money. Some of those people are women, and occasionally a man succeeds at this too. Children are a way to extract large amounts of money over time from partners. The state cooperates with this practice because the state will be on the hook otherwise.

reply
bobsmooth
7 days ago
[-]
Where's the contradiction? No sympathy for those that don't marry, sympathy for those that do.
reply
toomuchtodo
7 days ago
[-]
I don’t believe my citations are wrong, nor that they’re out of context as it relates to demographic trends, but you’re free to provide your own if you have them.

Additional citations below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UThiu3Q_NcQ

https://19thnews.org/2025/09/poll-traditional-family-gender-...

https://19thnews.org/2025/09/polling-2025/

reply
potato3732842
7 days ago
[-]
Its not your citations that are wrong, regardless of quality or bias I'm sure they back up your opinion.

It's your opinion that I take issue with.

reply
toomuchtodo
7 days ago
[-]
Your thoughts of my opinions and mental models are irrelevant to me, but of course you’re free to comment as much as you’d like and mods will allow. I take no offense because I do not care, and no offense is intended in informing.
reply
Nervhq
6 days ago
[-]
You're irrelevant to everything
reply
toomuchtodo
4 days ago
[-]
Strongly agree, we all are.
reply
potato3732842
3 days ago
[-]
I was honored that you featured me as "ignore" in your profile for the short time it lasted.
reply
mindslight
7 days ago
[-]
> If women feel like it is no longer safe to marry because they will be forced into equal custody, those rates would decline

IIUC, the new neutral bias applies regardless of marriage.

If a woman is looking to create a kid whom she has sole custody of, then what she is really looking for is a DIY sperm donor. I'm sure there are plenty of men downright eager to sign a contract relinquishing any paternity claim/liability as a condition of dating.

If you're talking about cases where a woman wants to create a kid, while retaining a unilateral ability to choose whether to have the man in the kid's life or not? That is a terrible dynamic and is exactly what needed reform.

reply
claytongulick
7 days ago
[-]
> I'm sure there are plenty of men downright eager to sign a contract relinquishing any paternity claim/liability as a condition of dating.

Are there?

I don't know. I don't think most men are as mercenary as that.

As someone who was literally offered this situation (a lesbian couple I was friends with that wanted a child) I can say that it simply wasn't something I could seriously consider.

How could I exist knowing that I had a child that I had little or no relationship with? A child who would constantly wonder about their father and why I wasn't part of their life?

I don't think it's just me, I think most guys would have a problem with that.

And maybe the ones that don't wouldn't be the best choice for being a father?

reply
mindslight
6 days ago
[-]
Sperm donors exist. It doesn't need to be most, or even that many. When I wrote my comment I was thinking of the many young guys that don't want to be trapped into settling down, but I agree when it comes down to it it is a much bigger mental hurdle knowing that the intent is to definitely produce a child.
reply
EPWN3D
6 days ago
[-]
> If women feel like it is no longer safe to marry because they will be forced into equal custody, those rates would decline.

What kind of a batshit characterization of women is this? You think women will only marry a man if they are guaranteed custody of any potential children in a potential divorce?

reply
toomuchtodo
6 days ago
[-]
It is my belief, in the American macro of policy, it is simply rational and prudent for women to avoid marriage and children whenever possible (as a practitioner in risk management, assessing and managing risk, and a rationalist) so long as the policy is what it is. My opinion would change if the policy, macro, and experience changes and failure modes are less brutal (there’s ~$100B in child support debt outstanding, single parent outcomes are suboptimal, 23 million children live in a single parent home, etc). But as it stands, you’re setting yourself up for failure by entertaining marriage (considering 40-50% failure rates for first marriages) and children (two incomes required, $330k to raise a child 0-18 in 2023 dollars excluding daycare and college). The median household income in Kentucky as of this comment is ~$62k/year. Half of all violent crime in Kentucky over the last six years was domestic violence of both men and women. Returning to the labor force as a stay at home parent (if divorce occurs), regardless of gender, is challenging at best. Might as well skydive without a parachute and hope you’re lucky enough to fall into a tree.

People change as well. Who you marry is potentially not who you want or need a divorce from. Sometimes the economic unpleasantness can be avoided with prenups, but this is much more rare than it should be. Choices can lead to substantial long term obligations and liability, binding for one to two decades, and I think better choices can be made (based on the evidence and the data).

My opinions in this thread are not gender driven, but data driven.

(~40% of pregnancies in the US are unintended every year as well, per the Guttmacher Institute, although I don’t have Kentucky specific numbers at hand in that context)

reply