What it is An applied mechanism that sets (i) a discount schedule over time/sales and (ii) a very small probability p that a buyer gets the item for free (or a full rebate). Buyers choose between: 1. Buy Now at the current discounted price, or 2. Try Your Luck by buying a low-cost ticket with a tiny chance to get the item free.

Every ticket purchase nudges the item’s public discount down a notch for everyone (externality on price), which increases conversion even for risk-averse buyers.

Why this might matter • Converts “promotion/giveaway” into a tunable, budget-bounded mechanism. • Encourages network effects: risk-seeking users fund discounts enjoyed by risk-neutral/averse users. • Potentially increases welfare and revenue simultaneously (under reasonable demand/elasticity assumptions).

Design sketch (feedback wanted) • Constraints: Individual Rationality (buyers should expect non-negative surplus), approximate Budget Balance in expectation, and platform risk caps (p·price ≤ margin envelope). • Knobs: p(t), ticket price τ, discount step Δ, cooldowns/limits to prevent abuse, anti-sybil rules. • Modeling: Monte Carlo for calibration; Markov-style retention for repeated interaction; A/B on p and Δ.

Open questions • Clean proofs/conditions for IC/IR/BB here? • Welfare vs. classic sales + coupons? • Regulatory posture across jurisdictions (promotion vs. lottery vs. sweepstakes)?

Status & Ask I’m packaging a Shopify-compatible module and a short whitepaper. I’d love rigorous critique, pointers to similar mechanisms, or collaborators who enjoy mechanism design + practical engineering.

Contact: Mert — beyazpiyon54@gmail.com