It’s been a very hard year
49 points
1 hour ago
| 9 comments
| bell.bz
| HN
Swizec
1 hour ago
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I’ve seen Picallilli’s stuff around and it looks extremely solid. But you can’t beat the market. You either have what they want to buy, or you don’t.

> Landing projects for Set Studio has been extremely difficult, especially as we won’t work on product marketing for AI stuff, from a moral standpoint, but the vast majority of enquiries have been for exactly that

The market is speaking. Long-term you’ll find out who’s wrong, but the market can usually stay irrational for much longer than you can stay in business.

I think everyone in the programming education business is feeling the struggle right now. In my opinion this business died 2 years ago – https://swizec.com/blog/the-programming-tutorial-seo-industr...

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jillesvangurp
2 minutes ago
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This is the type of business that's going to be hit hard by AI. And the type of businesses that survive will be the ones that integrate AI into their business the most successfully. It's an enabler, a multiplier. It's just another tool and those wielding the tools the best, tend to do well.

Taking a moral stance against AI might make you feel good but doesn't serve the customer in the end. They need value for money. And you can get a lot of value from AI these days; especially if you are doing marketing, frontend design, etc. and all the other stuff a studio like this would be doing.

The expertise and skill still matter. But customers are going to get a lot further without such a studio and the remaining market is going to be smaller and much more competitive.

There's a lot of other work emerging though. IMHO the software integration market is where the action is going to be for the next decade or so. Legacy ERP systems, finance, insurance, medical software, etc. None of that stuff is going away or at risk of being replaced with some vibe coded thing. There are decades worth of still widely used and critically important software that can be integrated, adapted, etc. for the modern era. That work can be partly AI assisted of course. But you need to deeply understand the current market to be credible there. For any new things, the ambition level is just going to be much higher and require more skill.

Arguing against progress as it is happening is as old as the tech industry. It never works. There's a generation of new programmers coming into the market and they are not going to hold back.

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tonyhart7
47 minutes ago
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what happen if the market is right and this is "new normal"?????

same like StackOverflow down today and seems like not everyone cares anymore, back then it would totally cause breakdown because SO is vital

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lmm
20 minutes ago
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> what happen if the market is right and this is "new normal"?????

Then there's an oversupply of programmers, salaries will crash, and lots of people will have to switch careers. It's happened before.

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yungwarlock
16 minutes ago
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I'm young, please when was that and in what industry
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forgetfreeman
54 seconds ago
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.com implosion, tech jobs of all kinds went from "we'll hire anyone who knows how to use a mouse" to the tech jobs section of the classifieds was omitted entirely for 20 months. There have been other bumps in the road since then but that was a real eye-opener.
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indemnity
32 minutes ago
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I haven’t visited StackOverflow for years.
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ido
4 minutes ago
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Ive honestly never intentionally visited it (as in, went to the root page and started following links) - it was just where google sent me when searching answers to specific technical questions.
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nrhrjrjrjtntbt
31 minutes ago
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I stopped using it much even before the AI wave.
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m463
20 minutes ago
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buggywhips are having a temporary setback.
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AIorNot
35 minutes ago
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Sorry for them- after I got laid off in 2023 I had a devil of a time finding work to the point my unemployment ran out - 20 years as a dev and tech lead and full stack, including stints as a EM and CTO

Since then I pivoted to AI and Gen AI startups- money is tight and I dont have health insurance but at least I have a job…

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wickedsight
1 minute ago
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Come to Europe. Salaries are (much) lower, but we can use good devs and you'll have vacation days and health care.
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mmaunder
21 minutes ago
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“we won’t work on product marketing for AI stuff, from a moral standpoint, but the vast majority of enquiries have been for exactly that”

Nice to have the luxury of turning your nose up at money.

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_ttg
37 minutes ago
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I want to sympathize but enforcing a moral blockade on the "vast majority" of inbound inquiries is a self-inflicted wound, not a business failure. This guy is hardly a victim when the bottleneck is explicitly his own refusal to adapt.
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voiper1
14 minutes ago
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Surely there's AI usage that's not morally reprehensible.

Models that are trained only on public domain material. For value add usage, not simply marketing or gamification gimmicks...

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venturecruelty
28 minutes ago
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Survival is easy if you just sell out.
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_ttg
20 minutes ago
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if the alternative to 'selling out' is making your business unviable and having to beg the internet for handouts(essentially), then yes, you should "sell out" every time.
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nrhrjrjrjtntbt
30 minutes ago
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I wonder if there is a pivot where they get to keep going but still avoid AI. There must be for a small consultancy.
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frankhsu
32 minutes ago
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I agree that this year has been extremely difficult, but as far as I know, a large number of companies and individuals still made a fortune.

Two fundamental laws of nature: the strong prey on the weak, and survival of the fittest.

Therefore, why is it that those who survive are not the strong preying on the weak, but rather the "fittest"?

Next year's development of AI may be even more astonishing, continuing to kill off large companies and small teams unable to adapt to the market. Only by constantly adapting can we survive in this fierce competition.

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paulsutter
27 minutes ago
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> we won’t work on product marketing for AI stuff, from a moral standpoint

Can someone explain this?

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powerclue
8 minutes ago
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Some folks have moral concerns about AI. They include:

* The environmental cost of inference in aggregate and training in specific is non-negligible

* Training is performed (it is assumed) with material that was not consented to be trained upon. Some consider this to be akin to plagiarism or even theft.

* AI displaces labor, weakening the workers across all industries, but especially junior folks. This consolidates power into the hands of the people selling AI.

* The primary companies who are selling AI products have, at times, controversial pasts or leaders.

* Many products are adding AI where it makes little sense, and those systems are performing poorly. Nevertheless, some companies shove short AI everywhere, cheapening products across a range of industries.

* The social impacts of AI, particularly generative media and shopping in places like YouTube, Amazon, Twitter, Facebook, etc are not well understood and could contribute to increased radicalization and Balkanization.

* AI is enabling an attention Gish-gallop in places like search engines, where good results are being shoved out by slop.

Hopefully you can read these and understand why someone might have moral concerns, even if you do not. (These are not my opinions, but they are opinions other people hold strongly. Please don't downvote me for trying to provide a neutral answer to this person's question.)

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jumploops
1 hour ago
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> we won’t work on product marketing for AI stuff, from a moral standpoint, but the vast majority of enquiries have been for exactly that

Although there’s a ton of hype in “AI” right now (and most products are over-promising and under-delivering), this seems like a strange hill to die on.

imo LLMs are (currently) good at 3 things:

1. Education

2. Structuring unstructured data

3. Turning natural language into code

From this viewpoint, it seems there is a lot of opportunity to both help new clients as well as create more compelling courses for your students.

No need to buy the hype, but no reason to die from it either.

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ttiurani
34 minutes ago
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> imo LLMs are (currently) good at 3 things

Notice the phrase "from a moral standpoint". You can't argue against a moral stance by stating solely what is, because the question for them is what ought to be.

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strken
16 minutes ago
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Really depends what the moral objection is. If it's "no machine may speak my glorious tongue", then there's little to be said; if it's "AI is theft", then you can maybe make an argument about hypothetical models trained on public domain text using solar power and reinforced by willing volunteers; if it's "AI is a bubble and I don't want to defraud investors", then you can indeed argue the object-level facts.
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ttiurani
7 minutes ago
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Indeed, facts are part of the moral discussion in ways you outlined. My objection was that just listing some facts/opinions about what AI can do right now is not enough for that discussion.

I wanted to make this point here explicitly because lately I've seen this complete erasure of the moral dimension from AI and tech, and to me that's a very scary development.

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weird-eye-issue
26 minutes ago
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I think some people prefer living in reality
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ChrisArchitect
35 minutes ago
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anovikov
45 minutes ago
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Interesting. I agree that this has been a hard year, hardest in a decade. But comparison with 2020 is just surprising. I mean, in 2020 crazy amounts of money were just thrown around left and right no? For me, it was the easiest year of my career when i basically did nothing and picked up money thrown at me.
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nrhrjrjrjtntbt
28 minutes ago
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Why would your company or business suddenly require no effort due to covid.
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anovikov
15 minutes ago
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Too much demand, all of a sudden. Money got printed and i went from near bankruptcy in mid-Feb 2020 to being awash with money by mid-June.

And it continued growing nonstop all the way through ~early Sep 2024, and been slowing down ever since, by now coming to an almost complete stop - to the point i ever fired all sales staff because they were treading water with no even calls let alone deals, for half a year before being dismissed in mid-July this year.

I think it won't return - custom dev is done. The myth of "hiring coders to get rich" is over. No surprise it did, because it never worked, sooner or later people had to realise it. I may check again in 2-3 years how market is doing, but i'm not at all hopeful.

Switched into miltech where demand is real.

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