> We present the first causal analysis of recent large minimum wage increases, focusing on 47 large U.S. counties that reached $15 or more by 2022q1. [...] We then find significant and larger positive employment effects, as the monopsony model predicts. We go on to document the presence of monopsony in the restau- rant industry. [...] The fast food industry’s monopsony power allowed it to accommodate large minimum wage increases and raise employment.
Source: https://irle.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Minimum...
These places were great places for the poor. They are close to lots of people and that implies some of those people will be willing to hire you for a something cheap. It isn't a great life, but if you have very limited abilities you likely prefer to make your own choices in life vs whatever the shelters force on you. (some shelters/institutions have been very abusive in the past)
The "obvious" thing is to subsidize employment (by negative income tax for low-incomes to avoid discontinuities), and sectoral/collective bargaining (to avoid divide-and-conquer information asymmetry), and unemployment payments (to allow for the market to find new "healthy" equilibrium, so people don't have to take the first shitty job).
I appreciate your argument, and you knowlwdge of economics adds weight to it. I'm wary of putting the burden on workers to remove information asymmetry and power imbalances in bargaining. Just because it's necessary now doesn't mean it needs to be. It could create a cycle of permanent extra work for those most in need of regulatory help.
I don't know if I had the full language of economic inefficiencies ready to flow like you do if that argument would be more effective. Or if there are other blocks, you know?
Given all that, whatever labor or wage trick you do is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. I know how to remediate the plastic issue, which is an engineering question. Until that’s addressed the union sq debt clock is counting the cargo ships docking to feed our money/energy/oil->landfill pipeline.
There's a tremendous amount of economic growth. And as long as there are places where we can put in some better technology, a more efficient process or organization, then growth will continue, and the money supply will have to grow, and it's currently done via bank-issued money, because it provides some risk management. (Which is the most important factor of money creation. This is why finance and insurance developed intertwined.)
Energy is one bottleneck, sure, but there's no serious slowdown of growth of electricity generation capacity for example. And GDP growth is decoupling from carbon intensity. (As it should as we started to invest a lot of our economic surplus to do so.)
...
The important thing to remember is that there's a balance between how much money is needed now and how much is issued to be paid back later, and obviously if the growth would be almost zero the interest rate would be almost zero too.
If growth slows down (the fiscal multiplier goes down, there are no more public things to do, no more houses to insulate to get a smaller HVAC bill, no unemployed person to teach skills who would then work) then need for money also goes down, as no one will offer to pay it back with interest, so interest rate will go down, so whatever amount of money we have (as debt) we can keep rolling it over.
And of course the central bank can always exchange debt money to non-debt money. (And every time it wants to increase the interest rate it used to do something similar, it sold assets [US Treasury bonds] which removed debt money from the system. And back in the 90s there was talk about how the US central bank will adapt if the US government starts to run surpluses permanently.)
So minimum wage helps less than 1% of workers, at the expense of people who don't have skills valued at the minimum wage? Why are you confident that's a net positive trade off?
> If someone cant land a job at minimum wage it is because the employers think they are a net negative.
That's why I think that people should be able to work for less, for employers who think they are a net positive at a lower wage. It's better than the true minimum wage of zero. It's not like the value of labor is discontinuous, such that it is worth zero if is worth less than a minimum.
No. If someone cant land a job at minimum wage it is because employers think they would be a net negative at a $0 wage. There are a couple counter examples like walmart no longer being open overnight, but even then thats more because of theft than paying the employees. It is not hard to find a minimum wage job in the vast majority of the country. If you cant its because employers think you will do an exceptionally bad job. Every single adult has skills valued at minimum wage in the US, the question is just if they have a drug problem or mental illness or something like that. Those people wouldnt be helpful at $0 wage either
Strong disagree, no foundation. There are lots of profits to be made at $10 per hour that can't be made at $15.
A minimum wage raises the bottom wrung of the economic ladder and declares victory for the workers.
Sure, if you have decent workers. But decent workers can make $15/hr so you cant get them. If youre stuck with the people who cant get a minimum wage job you dont have anyone you can trust and you cant build a business like that unless youre amazon tracking everyone's metrics with a billion dollar warehouse system. (amazon also pays well over minimum wage)
I understand that there are concerns with race to the bottom dynamics and ensuring a minimum standard of living, but there are better tools for addressing that than the minimum wage (a more generous EITC or negative income tax for example).
Conflating the two obscures both.
federal minimum wage, which is lower than many, many states, so stating this is a little misleading. It's also at or around 1% (for federal), not less - per this 2023 source: https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/2023/
In states like california, this number is much higher: https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/3
You can have flophouses. Officially or under the table. But you can’t have them in areas with the vultures circling so to speak.
Not saying gentrification is good or bad. Just saying, if gentrification profits are there to be had, it’s a bit foolish to expect people to not do whatever it takes to secure those profits.
There are a few people who because they only need a bed use them despite having other options. I've read reports of a few people who sleep under their desk - if the company won't allow this (it is often technically illegal) such a place might be your best option.
There are a few people who because of "problems in life" need a place that is cheap. If your wife gives you a restraining order when you get home as your first notice the marriage is dead you need a place for a few nights while figuring that mess out. (sexism mostly because there are a lot more women's shelters - but otherwise this can apply to either)
There might be some people using this as a really cheap hostel.
But the article makes it clear - most of the people using the place were not what you would call "normal people". They are addicted to something and are there because they need a place to sleep so they can spend more money on their addiction. There is also mental illness - not so bad that they need to be institutionalized, but not really fully able to support themselves.
I get the impression that times have changed - 120 years ago it was much more socially acceptable to live in such a place. You get a bed, and otherwise you are using the city for everything (work, entertainment...)
And we know that the misery won out when people pose it like this:
> If you can't afford a home up to our standards, better that you should be homeless?
The third option is to LIVE IN CHEAPER PLACES. The US has 1.1 housing units per household. We literally have more homes than families! And this doesn't change much if we assume that illegal immigrants are undercounted.
The whole housing policy must focus on making MORE locations feasible, not trying to strangle the democracy with bike lanes.
Yeah there’s a correlation but I doubt it’s causation. There are underlying aspects like zoning (and other regulations as mentioned in article) that can make an impact on housing prices. Other reasons are because employment and career prospects are higher so that attracts more people, which creates more demand.
And yeah, bike lanes are part of it too. They make it easy to get around quickly & cheaply. Our bike lanes are packed with bicycle couriers and the impact on traffic is practically zero. Bike lanes are popular because they work.
High rent is caused by low supply of high-density housing. Apartment blocks are cheap. It's bad zoning, NIMBYs, and a slow pace of construction due to disproportionate focus on luxury units that cause housing supply issues.
> The third option is to LIVE IN CHEAPER PLACES. The US has 1.1 housing units per household.
Yeah, you know why people don't live in those places? They're in exurbs of Arizona, a thousand miles from anything. During the housing bubble, we built a bunch of homes in unlivable areas and now we're dealing with the fact that they're functionally useless.
None. You're losing money by not living in a cheaper place and overpaying for transit. Transit is FREAKISHLY expensive in time and money, it's not even funny how inefficient it is.
> Our bike lanes are packed with bicycle couriers and the impact on traffic is practically zero.
So you're in Manhattan? Figures
> High rent is caused by low supply of high-density housing.
Wrong. Hint: Manhattan is one of the most expensive places in the US. And recently elected a socialist who was promising state-run grocery stores.
> Yeah, you know why people don't live in those places?
Because toxic urbanism strangled the democracy with bike lanes. There are no jobs because it's cheaper for companies to build offices in Downtowns of large cities, offloading the externalities.
This in turn makes housing near Downtowns more expensive because workers have to live there in order to get a job. This further increases the talent pool nearby, incentivizing more companies to open offices there.
Rinse, wash, repeat, and you get a misery-density housing spiral.
Oo, totally wrong! Fun guess though. The average monthly cost of car ownership is $1,300. The cost of a one-month transit pass is $150. I'm not gonna save $1,150 on rent by moving to a shitty suburb.
> So you're in Manhattan?
Nope.
> Wrong. Hint: Manhattan is one of the most expensive places in the US.
Yeah, because there's a shortage of apartments—that's what I said. Manhattan Island (being a rather small island) has physically run out of room for buildings, but that's not true of other areas.
> And recently elected a socialist who was promising state-run grocery stores.
Ok? So what? Maybe they'll expose private-sector price fixing & maybe they'll just be grocery stores.
> Because toxic urbanism strangled the democracy with bike lanes.
I'm honestly baffled. What makes you think bike lanes are undemocratic? Bikes are super cheap and take up very little space. Bike lanes really cut down on traffic.
> This in turn makes housing near Downtowns more expensive because workers have to live there in order to get a job.
Have you heard of industrial parks? It's pretty common for offices in big cities to be outside the city centre—far more common on the whole than downtown offices are.
The big advantage of downtown offices is that a city's downtown is the nexus of its public transit: If you work downtown, you can easily live a ways outside the city on cheaper land and then come in by train. So no, the point of a downtown is that you don't need to live there to work there.
Do you actually live in a city? I feel like you don't have a very strong understanding of how they're structured.
The TRUE cost of one month's pass is about $3000 (with capital cost). The pure "just-keep-the-lights-on" cost is around $750. It's that you're paying it from your taxes and rent.
> Yeah, because there's a shortage of apartments—that's what I said. Manhattan Island (being a rather small island) has physically run out of room for buildings, but that's not true of other areas.
Yes, and it is metastasizing into other neighborhoods.
> Ok? So what? Maybe they'll expose private-sector price fixing & maybe they'll just be grocery stores.
Think about it again. If density works so well, why is there a significant number of people too poor to buy groceries?
> Have you heard of industrial parks? It's pretty common for offices in big cities to be outside the city centre—far more common on the whole than downtown offices are.
Not anymore.
Lol as if you can't just look up the transit commission's budget. (Annual budget) ÷ (average daily ridership × 12 months per year) = $180 per month per rider at most (since the pool of riders is larger than the daily average).
> Yes, and it is metastasizing into other neighborhoods.
Good. More apartments means cheaper rent.
> If density works so well, why is there a significant number of people too poor to buy groceries?
The cost of living is high because rent is expensive, obviously. I never said it was cheap to live in NYC. Focus on the actual subject of our discussion, please. Do you think rent in Manhattan would be cheaper if there were fewer apartments?
> Not anymore.
You're just saying stuff now. Only 40% of jobs are located downtown in my city, and compared to the other cities I saw when I was poking around for this data, that's high.