Himalayas bare and rocky after reduced winter snowfall, scientists warn
90 points
5 hours ago
| 6 comments
| bbc.com
| HN
adrianN
3 hours ago
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It won’t be long before climate change starts causing mass migrations and the associated conflicts. With the current unstable world order we could really do without another massive problem.
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grumbelbart2
10 minutes ago
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Some say it was a factor in Syria as well:

https://www.dw.com/en/how-climate-change-paved-the-way-to-wa...

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jmward01
2 hours ago
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Arguably Iran is seeing turmoil, at least partially, due to drought.

https://www.npr.org/2025/08/17/nx-s1-5500318/iranian-officia...

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baxtr
1 hour ago
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But the drought was not caused by climate change, but by mismanagement ie complete neglect of the problem.
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pmezard
1 hour ago
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Is not climate change mismanagement or complete neglect of the problem?
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schainks
1 hour ago
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Iran specifically had infrastructure in place to help manage the water for Tehran (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qanat). The Ayatollahs not only _destroyed_ that infrastructure and the system of humans needed to maintain it, but they also encouraged pumping of water from local aquifers, among other obviously stupid water management techniques: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/khomeini...

So, you are right, but in Iran's case, the current regime pretty much did the opposite of anything you should have done, while also chopping of their hands to do anything more.

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baxtr
1 hour ago
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Absolutely.

But the problems are on different time scales and spheres of influence.

Iran can’t do anything on their own against climate change. But they can decide to fund water projects instead of bombs.

It’s a bit like saying: I went to the beach for a day and got sunburned. It’s climate change!

Yes the sun got more intense because of climate change (maybe) but why didn’t you buy an umbrella or sun screen?

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energy123
1 hour ago
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Monocausality is quite the assertion.
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baxtr
1 hour ago
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First of all, usually "and" denotes at least two separate things.

Second mismanagement is a super broad term showing failure on all levels of the state.

It’s definitely not monocausal but the effect many years of utter betrayal of their own people.

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energy123
52 minutes ago
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I agree with those causes. But climate change is also a cause. It magnifies the consequences of mismanagement, reducing the luxury incompetence margin that an equally incompetent theocrat/autocrat could have relied on 30 years ago.

As climate change gets worse in the future, the margin for error will keep shrinking. More countries will start to experience similar problems. Only the most competent will survive, but eventually regional instability will attack the foundations of that state capacity as a contagion byproduct, making it harder to be the competent outlier.

This all becomes a push driver for migration towards the colder north, as the equator becomes progressively destabilized and uninhabitable. Not only water shortages in dry climates but wet-bulb temperatures in temperate climates that make existing outdoors dangerous for periods of the year.

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baxtr
48 minutes ago
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Yes I agree that climate change is a huge problem but it doesn’t release the leaders of a country of their responsibility to mitigate the effects wherever possible.
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maest
28 minutes ago
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This argument is particularly pernicious as it can, in it's general form, always deflect from the issues of climate change and always focus on blaming local governments.

This is what will happen in the future btw - climate change will apply pressure via famine and droughts, but the fallout will always be attributed to the failure of local governments to correctly "manage the change".

We'll go from "climate change is a hoax" to "climate change is just a given and it's your duty to manage it".

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baxtr
17 minutes ago
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I don’t man. It sounds as if you don’t want to answer a simple question and instead like to wander into theoretical thought experiments.

The case here is very simple: invest in infrastructure for your people or invest in bombs to attack foreign states.

And you’re saying it’s climate change? I’d like to live in your world.

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Y-bar
1 hour ago
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Arguably the climate change we see today (and will see in the future) is also largely caused by mismanagement and complete neglect of the problem.
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magicalhippo
1 hour ago
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I recall reading about a paper in SciAm or American Scientist a couple of decades ago, where they had trained a ML model to predict regional conflicts or civil wars. The main input was scarcity of food, mainly through price IIRC.

They trained it on historical data up to the 90s or so, and had it predict the "future" up to the time of the article. And as I recall it did very well. They even included some actual near-future predictions as well which also turned out pretty accurately as I recall.

Which I suppose isn't a huge surprise after all. People don't like to starve.

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schainks
1 hour ago
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Link?
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zweifuss
33 minutes ago
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magicalhippo
33 minutes ago
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My memory isn't good enough to recall the name of the paper, however doing some searching I see the field has not stood still. Here[1] is an example of a more recent paper where they've included more variables. A quote from the conclusions:

The closest natural resource–society interaction to predict conflict risk according to our models was food production within its economic and demographic context, e.g., with GDP per capita, unemployment, infant mortality and youth bulge.

[1]: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/16/6574

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chii
1 hour ago
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while the drought was the last straw, i think the mismanagement of their water resources by the regime (for embezzlement of public funds, direct or indirect, into insider pockets etc) is the true root cause. There's "enough" water to last thru the current drought, if it was better utilized in the past.
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rob74
1 hour ago
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That, plus decades of mismanagement and corruption...
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_ink_
36 minutes ago
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I am really puzzled that this topic is not present in the public discourse.
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mvdwoord
27 minutes ago
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Not sure, but I have heard that more than plenty in public discourse (NL / W-Eur) and even the repeated blatant lies about the 2015 wave of migration to be due to climate change.
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grumbelbart2
2 minutes ago
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Climate change was likely a factor in 2015.

https://www.dw.com/en/how-climate-change-paved-the-way-to-wa...

> even the repeated blatant lies

It is difficult to have a reasonable discourse when starting with such overkill positions. The topic is way too nuanced. The civil war in Syria had many reasons, political, economic, religious, but also environmental.

Climate change massively increases the risk on water supply and harvesting yields, and if that risk manifests in a situation where people are already unhappy due to other reasons, it can be the trigger for large-scale reactions.

With all that having many factors, you'll rarely be able to point to one thing as "the" cause. That does not make it less relevant, though.

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netsharc
2 hours ago
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Are you writing from e.g. 2008? In 2010 Russian forest fires caused grain shortages and the price to go up, creating the Arab Spring and including the start of the Syrian civil war. That caused a wave of refugees that peaked in 2015. That caused the rise of right wing racist populism in Europe...
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profsummergig
3 hours ago
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Maybe they'll finally find the nuclear device lost on Nanda Devi, that has the potential to - *checks notes* - poison North India (via the glacier that feeds the Ganges).
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Guestmodinfo
20 minutes ago
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What's your opinion on a sudden flooding that happened some years ago in that region. I am an Indian so for some days our news were showing only that flooding news. It was sudden and super mssive and some news people suspected that same device or maybe one of the devices being accidentally going off. It was all speculation but the sudden and massive flooding was also unexplained to some extent. There has been several massive flooding in the region recently but all are due to extensive rain and cloud bursts. But one was unexplained in my untrained opinion. I remember it was some huge construction site. Wha they were building now I have forgotten that
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ninjin
3 hours ago
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krasin
3 hours ago
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> that (checks notes) has the potential to poison most of North India.

How large is the amount of plutonium in there? I highly doubt that it has the claimed potential.

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krasin
2 hours ago
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I found the specs for the fuel source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e9/SNAP-19C_Moun...

The high-power unit had 300 grams of Pu-238 in 1965. Given its 87.7 years half-life, only 187g of Pu-238 remaining. It's very hard to do much damage with this amount of radioactive material.

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onion2k
2 hours ago
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It decays to uranium-234 though, which still isn't exactly nice. It'll be a long time before it's a block of inert lead.
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krasin
1 hour ago
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U-234 is ~3000x less radioactive than Pu-238, so having ~120g of U-234 is negligible.

I really fail to see a problem with these tiny amounts of non-brittle material embedded into a solid case. It's still very dangerous, but it's locally dangerous (meters away), not at the scale of whole countries.

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hahahahhaah
48 minutes ago
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What notes did you check?
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khuey
2 hours ago
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Around three pounds, and something like 40% of it has already decayed away since this happened in the 60s.
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dukeofdoom
23 minutes ago
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On the flipside, it might make greenland actually green.
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manarth
14 minutes ago
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I visited Greenland for 6 weeks in 1998 (youth expedition with BSES) and it's surprisingly green in the summer, with thick foliage at the lower altitudes. And the midges, oh my! They sure had a taste for visitors.
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softwaredoug
59 minutes ago
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Even in optimistic scenarios we won’t see this actual global temperature decrease again in our lifetimes. We can only hope to minimize the impact so that the curve softens and maybe in a century starts to go down.
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Arun2009
1 hour ago
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What we tend to forget is that even with the catastrophic effects of climate change, the Earth is still vastly more inhabitable than other planets in the solar system. More pertinently, today we also have the intellectual tools to come with the right solutions for a good part of this problem. Solutions most likely won't require dramatic breakthroughs in fundamental science; probably just more clever engineering and better social and political coordination.

The real problem is that this is happening in one of the most socio-economically underdeveloped regions of the world. Despite isolated centers of modest excellence, India still hasn't fully absorbed the implications of the scientific revolution at a popular, cultural level. A good part of the population are still caught up in pre-modern modes of thinking. Rather than addressing this gap, the political establishment is only deepening an irrational and romantic belief in the worth of India's classical worldviews to continue their hold on power.

More than climate change, I dread the self-inflicted servitude to infantile notions that is holding India hostage. It's not really difficult to emerge out of this - we just need to shed our intellectual timidity and face reality as it is.

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mb7733
1 hour ago
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> What we tend to forget is that even with the catastrophic effects of climate change, the Earth is still vastly more inhabitable than other planets in the solar system.

Speak for yourself. I have never forgotten that Earth is more inhabitable than Mars or Jupiter

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leosanchez
1 hour ago
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I don't know what you are on about. You have pivoted to politics needlessly.

Current administration is investing in renewable energy. You are making them seem climate change deniers.

Keep your politics to reddit.

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throw3456
1 hour ago
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India produces abundance of food and got vast fertile lands. Modern farming is good but its gonna wipe out tens of millions of jobs if its done in no time.
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tehjoker
1 hour ago
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There are also pockets of India that are more advanced than many places elsewhere. I have a lot of love for Kerala. It doesn't have too many jobs, but it has a ton of heart and forward thinking people (which is why industrialists are scared of it).
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SanjayMehta
1 hour ago
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Industrialists are scared of communists and unions, for good reason.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokku_kooli

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M95D
47 minutes ago
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That's not communism, nor a union. That's just racketeering.
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aussieguy1234
34 minutes ago
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Climate change is obviously the cause and this is not good for the environment.

But on the flip side, does this mean it's never been easier to climb the Himalayan mountains?

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