This validates my hypothesis that the run-up in 2020–2022 was an artificial scarcity bubble driven largely by hyperscalers. AWS was right up there stockpiling before they shifted their pricing model. Once AWS introduced the hourly charge for public IPv4 addresses (effectively passing the scarcity cost to the consumer), their acquisition pressure vanished. The text notes Amazon stopped announcing almost 15M addresses in Nov 2025. I think they have moved from aggressive accumulation to inventory management.
We are seeing asset stranding in real-time. The market has realized that between the AWS tax and the efficacy of mobile CGNAT, the desperate thirst for public v4 space was not infinite. I'm curious to hear more takes on this.
The interesting downstream effect is on IP reputation systems. Traditional detection assumed 1 IP = 1 user. CGNAT breaks that entirely - platforms can't aggressively filter mobile carrier IPs without blocking legitimate customers by the thousands.
Makes sense the IPv4 price dropped once mobile networks proved you can serve massive user bases with relatively few public addresses.
Like you said, CG-NAT does have the benefit of making v4 address reputation less reliable, which means it's not as big a deal for the transition to v6.
At driving the majority of mobile traffic to IPv6? Otherwise, it seems hard to describe mobile CGNAT as efficacious to me.
Aka Kuiper
>stopped announcing almost 15M addresses in Nov 2025
https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/aws/new-aws-public-ipv4-address...
"As you may know, IPv4 addresses are an increasingly scarce resource and the cost to acquire a single public IPv4 address has risen more than 300% over the past 5 years. This change reflects our own costs and is also intended to encourage you to be a bit more frugal with your use of public IPv4 addresses and to think about accelerating your adoption of IPv6 as a modernization and conservation measure."
Their move disgusted me and I moved from AWS to OCI.
When IPv6 was developed, over 30 years ago, connecting everything to the internet seemed like a great idea. I know that IPv6 can be made secure, but I don't have the background or research time to learn how to do so, and the NAT-by-default of IPv4 effectively means that I get the benefit of a default-deny security strategy that makes it impossible to accidentally directly connect anything to the internet.
I'm hoping I can keep using IPv4 until IPv8 or IPv4.5 or whatever comes next is developed with the modern proliferation of cheap insecure IoT in mind.
For some background on why IoT products are so insecure:
Hardware manufacturers don't really comprehend the idea of updates, let alone timely of security patches. Hardware has to work on the day of release, so everything is documented and tested to verify it will work. I have hardware with a TCP/IP stack that was released 20 years, (https://docs.wiznet.io/Product/Chip/Ethernet/W5500) and doesn't have a single errata published, despite widespread use. This is expected for every single component, for even the smallest 1-cent transistor, which has dozens of guaranteed performance characteristics laid out over several pages of documentation (https://en.mot-mos.com/vancheerfile/files/pdf/MOT2302B2.pdf).
When manufacturers venture into a product that runs software, they don't realize that for a given complexity, working through undocumented or, worse yet, incorrectly documented APIs takes more time than the equivalent hardware development and documentation. I've worked on multiple projects where software bugs were fixed with hardware workarounds, because it's faster, cheaper, and easier to develop, test, document, retool, and add a few cents of bill-of-materials cost per product, than to get reliable output from the already-written library that's supposed to provide the functionality.
The hardware TCP/IP stack that I linked to was developed at a time when it was the cheapest way to connect a low-power embedded system to a network. Modern low-power embedded systems have multiple cores running at hundreds to thousands of MIPS making the resources to run a softtware TCP/IP stack trivial, but the product still sells well, because when security is an absolute must, the hardware development and maintenance cost for the functionality is still cheaper than through software, even when there's no marginal cost to run the software.
IPv4 is not NAT-by-default. The reality of the world we live in today is that most home networks have a NAT, because you need multiple devices behind a single IP.
That said, I agree: it's quite unknowable how many services I've turned on on local machines with the expectation that a router firewall sat between me and potential clients.
But that doesn't go away with IPv6 - the NAT does, the router doesn't, and the firewall shouldn't either. For example, the default UniFi firewall rules for IPv6 are: 1. Allow Established/Related Traffic (outbound return traffic), 2. Block Invalid Traffic, 3. Block All Other Traffic
You must explicitly open a firewall rule for inbound IPv6 traffic. NAT is not the firewall.
NAT _is_ a firewall. And a much safer one than IPv6 firewalls, because NAT will fail safe if misconfigured.
Also, if you have devices connected to WAN, then they are insecure because they are not NATed.
To get the "unsolicted traffic is rejected or dropped" behavior of the typical IPv4 NAT, forward inbound traffic that's related to an established connection and drop or reject the rest.
You can also use the exact same NAT techniques you use for IPv4 addresses with IPv6 addresses. The only differences are that instead of you using RFC 1918 Private Internets addresses (10./8 and friends) you use RFC 4193 ULA addresses (fd00::/8), and you need the usual NAT rules on your edge router, except for IPv6, rather than IPv4. Remember that IPv6 is still IP, just with larger addresses.
It's recommended that you generate your ULA subnet rather than selecting one by hand, but absolutely nothing stops you from choosing fd::/64. If you're statically assigning addresses to your LAN hosts, then your router could be -say- fd::1 and you count up from there. Also note that DHCP exists for IPv6 [0] and is used by every non-toy OS out there except for Android.
> I'm hoping I can keep using IPv4 until IPv8 or IPv4.5 or whatever comes next...
IPvnext is not happening in either of our lifetimes. You're either going to have to buy edge gear that's set up with a "reject or drop unsolicited inbound forwarding traffic" firewall, or learn how to set it up yourself. Either path is not hard. Well, I guess there's secret option #3: "Die without doing either.". That's also not hard.
[0] It has been around for nearly twenty-three years.
Even that is only a partial solution - UPNP hole punching exploits holes in this logic to allow peer-to-peer traffic into a network which otherwise has a default-deny ACL.
Luckily, common EU home routers have firewalls, even for IPv6. And it's so much easier to punch holes on purpose! Instead of messing with port forwarding and internal and external IP addresses, you can just say "this device is a server, please allow traffic on port 80 and 443, thank you"
At this point the services I am running are far more lucrative than the IP space itself is turning out to be.
"As the Internet continues to evolve, it is no longer the technically innovative challenger pitted against venerable incumbents in the forms of the traditional industries of telephony, print newspapers, television entertainment and social interaction. The Internet is now the established norm. The days when the Internet was touted as a poster child of disruption in a deregulated space are long since over, and these days we appear to be increasingly looking further afield for a regulatory and governance framework that can challenge the increasing complacency of the very small number of massive digital incumbents.
It is unclear how successful we will be in this search for responses to this oppressive level of centrality in many aspects of the digital environment. We can but wait and see."Don't bring technology to a political fight, the hoarders've got more tech than you, "wait and see" is what a bag of sand does at the gun range.
China already de-facto owns half of Africa so it's natural they would prey on their scarce IP resources as well.
When you see AI scraping at a massive scale originating from $AFRICAN_COUNTRY IP space, and that country's GDP is smaller than Rhode Island, you sure as shit know someone else is behind it.
In the case of China, I believe it's government or CCP-controlled entities, and the end-game is something more nefarious.
For India, IMO it's private industry. They're just trying to make a buck.
In the case of IP address purchases, these are publicly tied to specific public and private entities and can be easily queried through the regional registries. These private entities are frequently the same kind of shell company you'll get with hiding shady financial details.
And, I'd say, the US is known to do this. I'll lead with 'Project Azorian' to back it up.
Almost all the Indian subreddits are against the current government. You will be banned from a subreddit even if you rightly speak in support of current government on Reddit.
It's hard to take your rest of your comment seriously if you are blatantly dishonest about this.
In China, there is no meaningful difference between the party and any Chinese company. Companies are seed funded by the state and carry the will of the state. There is no "come back with a court order" in China. And even if there was, the courts are also just another arm of the party.
I think around 2000 every new LIR at RIPE got a /19 allocation. Smaller companies are now almost 30 years old and the founders divest their assets step by step unless someone buys everything.
For websites and services I don’t care. Some hosting platforms publish via CNAME, and some via A and AAAA records. Most seem to use a mix of v4 and v6 addressing.
The falling price of IPv4 addresses looks to me like we’ve made it to other side of the IPv6 rollout: demand for IPv4 is falling faster than supply now. Not clear if those prices are adjusted for inflation; the post-COVID spike looks like a lot of other nominal price graphs. If not, then the recent price drop is even more dramatic than it appears.
Perhaps in the long run, IPv4 becomes an artisanal choice for uses that depend on stable IP reputation: email sending, primarily. And everyone else relies on TLS for reputation signals, not caring about the IP address.
Hm...
It's more likely that the widespread deployment of CGNAT and 464XLAT in mobile networks made the IPv4 scarcity a non-issue. The some CGNAT solutions can multiplex more than 20000 devices onto a single IPv4 address.
I'm a very early adopter of IPv6, and I _still_ have operational issues with it.
its correct in other tables.
However, there are network upstarts like Jio (India) which made huge v6 investments from day one which use 464xlat for subscribers to access v4-only resources.
That's my point; why is it still difficult? What exactly are the pain points for a fully commercialized native IPV6-only business, and why do we think it will be easier to maintain the status quo?
It's obvious to anyone that looks at the two formats that any kind of hacky workaround like NAT gateways will be preferable indefinitely to actually adopting the monstrosity that is IPv6.
- TURN and STUN trivially bypass this side-effect, and a side effect of that is a third party has to often be involved, which can be collecting data later leaked or used against you.
- The monstrosity of NAT is that it's the core thing that drives centralization - because of NAT any two Internet hosts generally have to involve a third party to communicate, a third party which again, can be collecting data later leaked or used against you.
If you don't care about the security implications of the above, then you don't really care about the "firewall" either.
[0]: `<meta content="initial-scale=1,width=device-width" name="viewport">`
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1">IPv6 has failed at being better, being accessible, or both. Rather than punish people for failing to adopt something that isn't better or easy to get, either improve IPv6 so that it's actually attractive or admit defeat and start work on the next version that people will genuinely want.
The moment you start thinking "Let's make what people have now worse until they move to this other thing they don't want" its an admission that whatever you're pushing people to is shit.
I don't agree that it has. IPv6 is clearly better (no collisions between address space and thus no NAT requirement), and it's perfectly accessible to anyone who actually tries. I'm not by any means a top tier network guy but even to me IPv6 is dead easy to setup. The problem with the v6 transition is that people have very inaccurate views on one or both of those points (usually they falsely believe NAT provides security benefits, or they falsely believe IPv6 is a difficult thing to implement). I'm not sure how to fix this widespread misinformation but that is the problem from what I've seen.
Maybe one day in the distant future, IPv4 collisions/shortages will be an actual problem for most people. If that happens, those people will naturally make the switch. Until then, why would they?
It turns out a bunch of people actually like NAT. They like it so much that they pushed for solutions like NAT66 so that they can keep it even after switching to IPv6.
If IPv6 offered substantially better security/privacy, speeds, reliability, or introduced some new killer feature people didn't even know they wanted until they learned about it there wouldn't be any reason to try to force people to move to v6. Because it doesn't do any of that, and most people are happy with IPv4, they'll stick with what has been working for them.
I think there needs to be a push for IPv6-first networks for companies. ISPs in the US are pretty good about IPv6. But network engineers learned IPv4, and don't want to change what works, so companies lag behind. Changing existing networks is hard, but IPv6 is good candidate for new networks. This includes writing docs and eventually the education so IPv6 is the default.
And I have the same texture too! I hadn't observed it until your message
I have it both under Firefox or Chromium, and whether my tabs are vertical or not. It's just the website's background.
[0] Yes, I am aware that that's simply not possible for most folks. I used to be most folks, so I definitely know.
In either case, if you end up with internet resources you can trawl through sites like https://bgp.services/ to find a cheap VPS provider near you that supports peering. I run my own AS and advertise 3 network blocks (2 IPv4 + 1 IPv6) out of 2 different DCs for several hundred $ per year all in all (including renewal fees, VPS, taxes, etc).
1. My AppleTV began stuttering during playback.
2. My old iMac began crashing every time it connected to the wifi.
At least the iMac has an option to disable IPv6. The AppleTV has no such option so I had to do it in the router.