If the US government forces them to, Microsoft and Google could refuse to serve Office 365, Microsoft cloud storage, Google Drive, Google mail, all online services that we use Google to log in with, Android, so nearly all smart phones, Windows and MacOS. Society would grind to a halt.
If Taiwan loses access to ASML, then Europe loses as much as Taiwan or US does, and the effects could take years to feel
Takes us through the scenario....Because lately too many have started to believe this story of USA: "...we dont need anybody, all others need us...". Maybe too much FoxNews...
I'd imagine Europe would try to nationalize all EU assets of these companies if they did get cut off and try to recover any data that lives in Europe (though would take a long time).
Most homes would look pretty Spartan without stuff from China for example.
0% is not happening without an ungodly drop in living standard
Fundamentally, there's no reason why the continent of Europe can't do what China did.
Politically, I only see that kind of transitioning happening with an actual war, where all the problems with the USA or Russia respectively (yes, even though I said "continent" and Russia let alone Ukraine is on continental Europe) are at present distant storm-clouds on opposite horizons.
There is no good alternative for ASML if EU tries to shut down US access.
However, some huge parts are US made. For example, the EUV light source, the most important part of the system, that’s San Diego.
This is also how the US has legal authority to control where ASML can export their machines, and has used it previously.
https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2024/asml-statem...