In practice, their real problem is predicting how people will bet.
A simple coin-flip example shows why:
Even with a 10% overround, if 80% of money lands on one side, the bookmaker becomes exposed to extreme short-term variance. Three consecutive popular outcomes can wipe out the theoretical edge.
The article breaks down:
– why money distribution matters more than probability – how emotional teams distort football markets – why positive expected value does not prevent bankruptcy
Curious how people here see the analogy with market makers in financial markets.
Full breakdown here: https://www.playaiodds.com/en/blog/money-made-on-public-bets