Even a few paragraphs down they say this:
> The optimal age to freeze eggs varies depending on the source and metric, but almost all sources agree it's sometime between 19 and 26.
So there's some heavy bias inserted already into the title.
The next chart shows a peak around 19, but if you read the fine print it's not a chart about eggs at all. The subtitle says it shows:
> probability of getting pregnant for couples not on birth control
Not the quality of eggs frozen. They're saying one thing in text and showing a chart of something else. If you can't imagine why couples in their early 20s might have a higher rate of pregnancy than couples in their 50s then you might want to think a little deeper about the factors that go into that.
The writeup then goes into polygenic embryo screening, which then jumps to improving IQ by selecting embryos, which gets to their final argument which is that it's easier to collect more eggs when younger. So freezing a lot of eggs when you're younger allows for more boosting of your child's IQ through genetic screening based on a company called Herasight's data. Herasight has been widely criticized for overselling their abilities. Also, why do so many rationalist writeups end up back at a conversation about genetics and IQ?
The reason women freeze their eggs in their early 30s is because they still have a good chance for it to be effective and they now have a strong idea they'll need to. You don't have that second piece of information at age 19.
Or to be specific: What is the size of the cohort of women you are expecting to freeze their eggs at the age of 19, who will use those frozen eggs. How many of them will give birth to children without the help of IVF, and how many will choose never to have children.
I think this article is a good example of rationalism. Which is basically getting very mathsy about 1 specific very of the data, without viewing the data in the context of the decision that is being made.
For example, what is the percentage of women you expect to freeze their eggs at age 19, who you then expect to be unable to afford the $500 every year to keep those eggs frozen over the next decade?
Waiting to get a good balance of "your eggs are still reasonably healthy" and "if you haven't had kids until now, it'll probably be a while still" is probably the reason behind the current advice.
On the other hand, it may be a useful tool to resist expectations to become a mother until it becomes socially acceptable to say no. So it might be important even if the eggs are not getting used.
Then you add potential complications from anesthesia and the egg retrieval itself, and you have a net negative expected value.
The first time my wife underwent egg retrieval, the surgeon accidentally pierced her ovary. She has had pain on that ovary since.
Is this assumption based on anything? Not saying you're wrong, after all the majority of the world's population live in poor countries where people have children younger. But at least In my social circles it'd be more accurate to say 80%+ of women start having children at age 30 (or later) then are done with it. And I know multiple women who had their first child at 40+!
Insurance coverage is broader now. When we did it, we used cash pay but nowadays where we live in California there is SB 729 that means most big insurance plans will cover IVF. Personally, I think that's a bit regressive. Older, more established couples like us are benefiting from what will be primarily paid into by younger couples. But if pre-implantation testing becomes widespread (a good thing, imho) then IVF will be more widespread so perhaps this is a forward-looking policy. Still, expanding the child tax credit and raising it to 10x what it is would be good, I think.
We ended up doing 1 extraction and 2 implantations. If I remember it was roughly ($15k-20k) then (~$5k * 2). This was about 8-9 years ago. We had no fertility issues and had other reasons for doing IVF, but if you do have fertility issues it's more risk the extraction and embryo process will fail and need repeating.
The drugs for stimulating follicle growth cost around $500/day and the first cycle didn't result in enough mature follicles to be worth attempting the egg harvesting. In the second attempt, the duration was extended after a scan to let more develop. Every extra day, is an another $500.
If it weren't for the government program we were seriously looking at going to one of the many clinics in Mexico offering these services.
We weren't so lucky with the numbers though; here's significant attrition at every step and if you aren't starting with a good number it can look like: 5 follicles > 4 mature eggs > 2 embryos > 1 child
* feeling bloated during the process (and feeling heavy in the stomach)
* the discomfort of the actual injections (there are two daily)
* pain post-retrieval that was reminiscent of cramps
One of our other friends who had many eggs retrieved on a single cycle actually got ovarian torsion which is supposed to be outrageously painful.
I don't understand why governments of countries with increasing average age and low birth rate don't pay for this for all women. This is one the best pro-family policies that can be implemented.
Hard disagree on that. You're coming from an angle of someone who wanted to have kids and do it in a mathematically optimal way. A lot of people see egg freezing as a way to delay having kids until they're older, which can become a disincentive to raising families when they're young and healthy enough to do it. If you want a pro-family policy, you should be spending the money on people with families and their children, not on a tool that is used to delay having children in common use.
Another huge problem with this proposal is that freezing eggs is only a small part of the cost. The cost of IVF later in life could push into six figures depending on how many rounds are needed. If we're talking about pro-family policies that can cost upwards of $50,000 to $100,000 per family, there are many more effective places to spend that like on childcare options.
If the government is going to pay for IVF for 40 years old women it would be cheaper if those women had eggs frozen at 20 because overall you would succeed with fewer embryo transfers.
Of course that's not the only policy needed, we need affordable house for families, schools, decent parental leave for both parents.
So, no. It's not a good policy.
I've yet to see a good proposal for how to regulate or handle this as a society, so my best guess is that we keep the status quo (it's expensive so only rich people can do it) for the foreseeable future UNLESS it becomes some kind of culture war issue for MAGA, which seems honestly pretty likely. Presumably they would want to ban it, but allow exceptions for certain cases that amount to "but is the patient a married white woman with acceptable politics?" in a more legally palatable form.
Governments need to make COL more affordable, birth rate will go up naturally
I know there’s a lot of “whys” but not getting married, not having kids, living with parents, etc all compound to remaining a child in some sense and this is continuing well into the 20s and even 30s for a large portion of the demographic.
When it comes to 19 y/o women the fact most internet people would find it gross that 1) highly fertile and 2) desired by old men - is a reality. We tell old men these women are too young yet also won’t admit it’s because they are in some sense still children.
I can only speak as a man. I spent my late teens thinking with my penis instead of my brain. Things worked out well for me by pure luck.
Most teens have no real experience with “real” relationships or what makes a great life partner. This is CRUCIAL when parenting. They’re also not thinking about a stable career so they can actually support a baby. Never mind the money…most jobs in the U.S. have garbage health insurance, unless your employer is great.
Many people THINK they know what their life should look like. Then again most teens think they have life figured out lol. A tale as old as time…
I would say mid 20s is an ideal time from a maturity perspective. The best time depends on the person obviously. You can’t plan falling in love. :)
You don't need to have given "definitive thought" to your entire future to not be a child anymore.
Do we really want to rely on IVF to solve the fact that people can only afford a family home once they're well into their 40s? It's insanity if you ask me.
funding can just be awarded to centers actually performing the work they're paid for, you know.
Instead of doing what the body is natural designed to do lets go fully against it because of the current environment.
"Figuring out your life" was not a thing when humans evolved.
> Biological optimal vs societal optimal
to
> Biological optimal vs personal optimal
not really, overall the life expectancy is growing well over 80 years old. unless you live, like, in the woods and feed off berries and hunting or something like that.
and yeah sure there might be somebody that loses their parents at 15, absolutely. i'm sorry for them, but they are not statistically representative in any way.
I have a couple of friends married for about 4-5 years, with a 4-years old son and a one year old daughter. They both have graduate degrees and stable jobs. They are near 40 years old.
Man, they are two zombies. They are drained. They push forward for the immense love of their kids but it’s incredibly evident they’re drained.
And the thing is… having kids at almost 40 should really be discouraged. They simply don’t have the same energy they had when they were 20, of course. Heck, i’m 33 and it’s evident to me I don’t have the same energy as when I was 23.
This modern idea that one should postpone having kids is incredibly stupid, I hope at some point society will self-correct somehow.
At the end of the day it’s a moot point. You can’t pick when you find love and a suitable partner. :)
that's a moot point as well.
people find suitable partners all the time, but they don't even take having kids in consideration before a certain age
If my son has his first kid the same age I had him, I'll be in my 80s when that kid is starting little league (or that age). Then, factor in the fact that I don't know of any men in my family that have lived past 80 and it gets really grim. They were all heavy smokers and drinkers I remind myself with fingers crossed.
The most sad part for me, is I realized by delaying parenthood - I was just being selfish - and the net result is I minimized "shared time on earth" with the person I love the most. It's easy to say I wouldn't have been a good parent or I wanted X job/income first, but it's all just excuses and selfishness.
Bit of a thorny philosophical argument, maybe, but reasonable in this case.
Sticking to the philosophical arguments, having the kid at any other time, even earlier would not guarantee more time with them. It would have drastically shifted your life events which could include ones that possibly shorten it.
Exactly. My advice to anyone is not wait. If we hadn't, we would have found out sonner that we needed to go through that process. It's not a "wake up and schedule an appointment tomorrow" kind of thing, it's a treatment of last resort and you can burn years trying, going through evaluations and alternatives first.
The stuff we weeded out was on my wife’s side and the boy ended up being my clone. We joke about it as if we weeded out all of her genes. Even small things like his cowlicks and how his teeth are coming it are exactly like mine which I never would have expected to even be possible (I never gave it much thought tbh)
I feel I am a better parent now that I am sharing custody of my kids and can better balance personal life and hobbies and parenthood.
A cheaper option would be to find someone looking for kids with no romance and agree on having shared parenthood.
But I'm thinking that I had ample time to make experiences earlier in life, and even though I'm going to be close to retirement age by the time the last one of our children is going to leave the house, I still think it was fine the way it happened.
The whole framing of "I'm missing out because I have kids" is already a pretty terrible way of thinking about life, to be honest. I have a good friends who's divorced and with pretty much no circle of friends, apart from me, and he's really having a hard time coping with loneliness. Me, on the other, I cherish each chance I get to spend some alone time where I can just do hobby stuff or whatever, even though these moments really don't happen very often.
Which is much easier with the added emotional maturity and life experience that comes with age.
Not to mention if you chose your partner after the age of 25.
The main downside is relocating is impossible until your kids reach adulthood if you want to keep it that way so that is something to consider.
It's entirely a cost equation right now though.
I do think its all a bit dystopian though.
Employers should be required to pay for future maternity disability care insurance e.g. 2-3 years of maternal leave fully paid, elective at any time, even after they separate from the company. Also disability compensation in the event that fertility fails. e.g. $500k / missed fertility .
That would reveal the true success rate of the procedure. If employers or fertility clinics believed it to be a deterministic process, the risks for the employer would be low.
I've always found this one fascinating. Somehow human cells age and humans get old and die but humans can somehow make an entirely new creature through reproduction where that is reset and most of the defects from the parent are gone as well.
How does that work and what stumbling blocks exist that prevent us from replicating it?
I think the eggs aren't dividing as you age (you are born with them, so to speak) and the sperm is held "outside" the body.
One is in original packaging and the other is produced in a "cooler" enviroment by the billions with a heavy QA failure of 99.9999%.
The large award for a medical malpractice trial was the reason for doctors pushing for a C-section if there’s any possibility of a complication. (Sometimes called defensive medicine.)
Most people point to the cases won by John Edwards, trial lawyer and vice presidential candidate as the reason for the great increase in C-sections. His case wins include 30 trials at which he won at least $1 million dollars each.
Like I’m not sure it actually works this way but I can intuit why it’s possible, given the new life doesn’t have to be an exact replication.
It's almost like trying to change the flavor of a cake after it's been baked. Significantly easier to swap out ingredients before it's that far in the process.
Never hear about it again after the initial news.
And there is no single cure to cancer.
Perhaps it is because you're not a specialist—all of these things are still worked on.
or a fix,
for this?
(The fix is to consume less popular science types of sources.)