False claims in a widely-cited paper. No corrections. No consequences
109 points
by qsi
2 hours ago
| 8 comments
| statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
| HN
banana_sandwich
30 minutes ago
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“Professionals” in traffic engineering still religiously cling to “standards” that are largely based on BS served up by auto companies pre 1940.

Many such cases of this, it seems.

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komali2
3 minutes ago
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At least your traffic engineers set standards. In Taiwan often the standards come straight from the legislative yuan, aka just vibes laws from people who are driven around in private cars their whole lives.
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Analemma_
12 minutes ago
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The consequences here don’t seem all that bad, it’s just a silly management fad. By contrast, “Growth in a Time of Debt” from Reinhardt and Rogoff steered multiple national governments into pointless self-destructive and immiserating austerity, despite being equally bunk, and none of the authors ever saw any consequences for that either. You can’t even blame that one on “management science”, it was a straight macroeconomics paper.

There’s no accountability for junk science, especially if it props up the political status quo.

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qsera
2 minutes ago
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political? why about business? If junk science can help a huge market to keep selling, I think it will be the biggest blocker.
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malshe
7 minutes ago
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That paper wasn’t even peer reviewed. If I remember it correctly it was published in the AER Papers and Proceedings.
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t0lo
1 hour ago
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So we're firmly in the era of few people caring about few things now aren't we.
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lotsofpulp
1 hour ago
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I have always assumed the further away from math and physics a field is, the higher the probability of any given “research” to be false. Even biology, I might give 50% odds at best, but that is due to the difficulty of observing and measuring in that field. Anything past biology might as well be as fiction due to how easy it is to come up with whatever results you want.
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chromacity
32 minutes ago
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I think that theoretical math and physics are special, but probably not in the way you assume. It's just that there isn't a whole lot of grant money, prestige, or influence associated with them (unless you accomplish something truly exceptional).

In contrast, computer science is very close to math and should be more verifiable, but there's plenty of dubious results published every year, simply because it's more profitable to game the system. For example, I'd wager that 50%+ of academic claims related to information security are bogus or useless. Similarly, in physics, a lot of materials science breakthroughs are suspect.

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kmaitreys
8 minutes ago
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Great take. I have seen the discussion on this often gets turned into a hard vs soft science debate where in actuality it's just simply about money.
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hnburnsy
7 minutes ago
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  If it doesn't have "science" in the name, it's a science 
  If it has the suffix "logy", it's a semi-science
  If it has the word "science", it's not
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erikerikson
1 hour ago
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I appreciate that physics and math are simple, reductive, and first principles enough to be tractable. Solving easier problems always has better optics so long as all problems look equivalent. I'm guilty myself, only rising to neuroscience and relatively superficially at that...
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p-e-w
1 hour ago
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I fully expect that future programs for formalizing mathematics will reveal that most sufficiently complex proofs are riddled with gaps and errors, and that some of them actually led to false results.

Annals of Mathematics once published a supposed proof (related to intersection bodies IIRC) for a statement that turned out to be false, and it was discovered only by someone else proving the opposite, not by someone finding an error.

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Georgelemental
48 minutes ago
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Quantum physics, due to its own "difficulty of observing and measuring", has its fair share of nonsense too
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austinjp
1 hour ago
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Oh I'm sure the grifters will find ways in. The other disciplines may have provided a "moat" for the past few decades, but it won't last forever.
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paulpauper
1 hour ago
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Peer review is a joke still and exists now to please deans (for hiring and promotion) and enrich publishers. Bad papers get published if it reaffirms the biases of editors, and actually good and original stuff gets rejected. Rather than facilitating the exchange of knowledge, it acts as a barrier, especially when it cannot even be relied on for quality control.
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BobbyTables2
32 minutes ago
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Even in more respected journals, peer review is often done by beleaguered grad students who could be still relatively new to the field. They lack the experience to look at things with a critical eye.
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Aperocky
56 minutes ago
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For almost the last two centuries, we have grown accustomed to the fact that theory derive practical and useful results. This made academic system flourish including practices such as peer review, etc.

But for the millenniums preceding that, it was the reverse, practice and observation drove theory, and I wonder if we are going back to that and practice and once again dominate how we discover new things as a civilization.

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JoeOfTexas
52 minutes ago
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Status quo changes at the speed of snail.
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Tostino
42 minutes ago
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Usually when people die and vacate their seats of power in society.
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sillysaurusx
1 hour ago
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> and actually good and original stuff gets rejected

This seems to be the key part. Are you sure that's true?

In other news, (a) apparently you can now submit URLs with anchors to HN, previously a perennial problem; (b) this submission anchors to a comment that just says "I will try this. Suggestions welcome" with no further context.

Ironically, (b) was exactly why (a) was disallowed for the longest time. Anchors are usually a mistake by the submitter, since whatever's being anchored to usually has a permalink. Except Github. Hello, Github comments.

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hansvm
41 minutes ago
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> good stuff rejected, are you sure that's true

In the academic circles I frequent, it's not true. Any one journal might reject the good stuff, but it doesn't take more than a few applications to find a journal who recognizes it, and the cost of producing the research is so high that with the current career incentives it'd be ridiculous not to continue submitting. That does mean that journal "quality" matters less than you might think, but I don't think anyone's surprised by that notion either.

Errors the other direction are more common. I'll state that as an easily verified fact, but people like fun stories, so here's an example:

One professor I worked with had me write up a bunch of case studies of some math technique, tried to convince me that it was worth a paper, paid somebody else to typeset my work, and told me to compensate him if I wanted my name on the "paper." I didn't really; it was beneath any real mathematician; but there now exists some journal which has a bastardized, plagiarized version of my work with some other unrelated author tacked on available for the world to see [0], and it's worth calling out that nothing about the "paper" is journal-worthy. It's far too easy to find a home for academic slop, and I saw that in every field I spent any serious amount of time in.

[0] https://www.m-hikari.com/ams/ams-2019/ams-9-12-2019/p/jabbar...

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qsi
1 hour ago
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Ooops, sorry... I cannot edit the URL in the submission. I should have checked.
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sillysaurusx
1 hour ago
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No it's fine, it thoroughly amused a HN nerd like me. I've been keeping track of how HN works for well over a decade, and noticing small changes like this is something that's genuinely gratifying. The mods will no doubt be by to clean up the url shortly.

I'm just relieved you can submit anchored URLs now. I once stayed up for a few hours trying to submit some work I made as a github comment only to be disappointed that it would always redirect to the toplevel issue.

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cwillu
50 minutes ago
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You can always send a short polite email to hn@ycombinator.com with corrections you can't make yourself
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qsi
12 minutes ago
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I did, thanks for the suggestion.
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zer00eyz
54 minutes ago
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> and actually good and original stuff gets rejected

This isnt a new thing though.

Cantor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controversy_over_Cantor%27s_th... they didnt just reject him, they basically publicly beat him down, and drove him away from math and into depression.

David Bohm: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_potential spent years on the outside for having his ideas on this.

Geoffrey Hinton: was considered a quack and an outsider for YEARS because of his ideas on AI... the breakthrough he spawned was done on a shoestring of a budget (read: home pc).

Edit: I forgot John Yudkin: Pure White and Deadly, talking about how bad sugar is for you in 1972...

Rejected by the mainstream academics, and in a brutal way, happens a LOT more than we think.

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bsder
39 minutes ago
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Katalin Karikó and her work on mRNA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katalin_Karik%C3%B3

Her advisor, Suhadolnik, was a gigantic asshole and paid no price whatsoever for it. University of Pennsylvania demoted her and denied her tenure and nobody involved paid any price for that. etc.

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ls612
37 minutes ago
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Management Science, how am I not surprised? They have the worst rep of any Econ/Econ adjacent field for good reason.
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SanjayMehta
19 minutes ago
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Management, Political, Economic, Social Sciences are not sciences.
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ChrisArchitect
43 minutes ago
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cleaned up url: https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/24/false-clai...

(if not trying to highlight that particular comment on it)

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stinkbeetle
39 minutes ago
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Western civilization is transitioning from one where societal consensus is formed with reason and evidence to one where it is formed with emotions and feelings.
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jasonfarnon
27 minutes ago
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When was this golden age of western civilization again? like 10 years ago, are you suggesting we were in this golden age? I mean, the paper this link is discussing is from 2014, so I guess it was more like 15 years ago that the golden age sunsetted?
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stinkbeetle
23 minutes ago
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What do you mean when was it again? I don't understand your questions or how they relate to what I wrote.
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aloha2436
21 minutes ago
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They are insinuating that the consensus you're talking about never existed as you have described it.
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jasonfarnon
15 minutes ago
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If anything, I think the Internet has made it easier to expose bad science. People like Andrew Gellman and websites like pubpeer have had a huge impact on the practice of the social sciences (psychology especially) just using blogs. In the past he would have been ignored. Journals and authors do their best to ignore, dismiss, and discredit him now. Having a direct voice to the public is what saves him.
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esseph
9 minutes ago
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[delayed]
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stinkbeetle
20 minutes ago
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That would be strange and misguided because I didn't talk about a consensus, I was talking about a mechanism for consensus. And consensus has existed many times on many issues now, and then.
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hunter-gatherer
15 minutes ago
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Right, the mechanism you mentioned, reason, never existed. That's how I read their comment anyways.
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andrewjf
35 minutes ago
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That's really root cause in everything, isn't it?

- The consolidation of media (& social media in general) is about making money from outrage (emotions)

- Anti Vax (& other) movements is about people only receptive to people saying what they already feel (feelings)

- Accountability is gone because people care about being on the winning team and being "right".

Reason, Logic, and Evidence seems completely replaced by propaganda and mistrust of experts (fueled by the propaganda), but it's all rooted in comfort in people's own emotional validation.

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lotsofpulp
30 minutes ago
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>The consolidation of media (& social media in general) is about making money from outrage (emotions)

I think it is the exact opposite. Now that anyone in the world can create and share "media", professionals trying to make high brow media cannot compete with the emotional reaction slop that the other 8 billion people put out.

Look at what is popular on Reddit, Youtube, Twitter, TikTok, and now even the federal US government targets the same lowest common denominator. Even Fox News and ESPN cannot compete.

The supply of media sellers is the most unconsolidated it has ever been, with millions of random people recording their own faux outrage and uploading it daily for others to mindlessly consume.

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YZF
25 minutes ago
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Post-truth ... and it's gonna get worse.
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Andrex
30 minutes ago
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Biases will always be endemic to any human system.
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ginkgotree
36 minutes ago
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Excellent summary, as unfortunate as it is.
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tombert
35 minutes ago
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Oh that's not new.

I remember when I was a teenager there were lawsuits about trying to teach creationism in school. My entire life conservatives have been arguing against climate change.

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stinkbeetle
24 minutes ago
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> Oh that's not new.

It's not that outrage or unfounded opinions were new, or the masses were never fooled or taken advantage of before. It's that the mechanism for social consensus is rapidly shifting.

> I remember when I was a teenager there were lawsuits about trying to teach creationism in school. My entire life conservatives have been arguing against climate change.

And yet the consensus about climate change and in particular support for policies that address it is very strong.

https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/yc...

60-70% is far far higher than most politicians win elections by. They'll call 5low-something% a landslide. They push policies and laws that are far less popular than that, claiming popular mandate.

And yet there are a bunch of people fixated on the idea that it is a disadvantaged (poorer, less educated) minority of average citizens of the country who are orchestrating some evil battle against it. Rather than seeing the obvious that the ruling class is as always pushing divide and conquer techniques, shifting blame, and turning people on one another. A good example of the emotional mechanism of social consensus.

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foweltschmerz
1 hour ago
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disheartening
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