From Idea to App Store Was Predictable. From Launch to Traction Was Not
1 points
1 hour ago
| 0 comments
| HN
When you just have an idea and the plan is only starting to form, everything feels unclear. Building a product to launch seems daunting, overly complicated. And it may indeed be complicated, depending on the product. But in reality - given all the available tools and resources - it is the most ‘plannable’ part. If you are meticulous in planning and diligent in execution, it is also the most predictable part in terms of key results. You start with a concept, move to architecture and systems, and before you know it - you have a prototype to play with. You build, test, improve, iterate, iterate, iterate, and launch. And here’s where the real difficulty begins: everything after “Done”. Let me clarify something upfront: I’m talking about owning an indie product - with no backing whatsoever. The cruel reality hits fast. Zero traffic. Let that sink in: zero traffic. With thousands of apps being launched daily - many backed by real marketing budgets - the real (if not the only) challenge becomes distribution. Launch doesn’t equal users. Publishing something doesn’t mean anyone will see it. There is no real “launch moment” - only gradual, manual effort. Distribution becomes the product. That’s what you now develop, test, improve, and iterate. At least, that’s how it has been for me. The most important input at this stage is genuine feedback - which is absent by default. And “genuine” is the key word here. I would strongly advise against relying on friends or family for early feedback. It might seem like the easiest way to start, but overly polite responses rarely help. Instead, invest time into integrating review requests into your main action loop - even if it feels slightly annoying at first. Every review is extremely valuable, both for product development and organic acquisition. Test placement. Monitor prompts vs. actual reviews. Create custom events to track this. And when reviews start coming in, don’t stay passive - respond to every single one. When I reply, I highlight what was particularly helpful (e.g., a specific device mention). This subtly nudges future reviewers toward more meaningful feedback. Metrics feel almost meaningless early on. With so few data points, there’s too much noise and not enough signal. Avoid chasing textbook KPIs. Don’t over-focus on financial metrics - even if you already have paying users. Don’t stress too much about acquisition or retention rates either. At this stage, there are simply too many outliers. For me, the most useful early signals were: average engagement duration event tracking (counts and sequencing) Engagement duration is probably the earliest indicator that something works. I rely heavily on Firebase Events, mostly custom ones across the action loop. My working heuristic became: “Sessions and Counts.” As long as: most sessions are “complete” key event counts are trending upward you’re moving in the right direction. Conversion rates will fluctuate. Retention will be unstable. That’s expected. For context: engaged sessions are growing ~41% month-on-month (custom metric ~32%), with key events up ~35%. Not explosive, but alongside retention levels (DAU/MAU 7%, DAU/WAU 20%, WAU/MAU 35%), it seems reasonable. One counterintuitive thing during this early “distribution grind” is doing things that don’t scale. But they work. Things like: engaging in niche Facebook groups participating in Reddit communities commenting in YouTube discussions These manual efforts can bring your first real users. My app is still early. I might be done in a couple of months, but I do see a slow increase in paying users, and these heuristics seem to be keeping me moving forward. If you’re building something, this stage might feel quiet or uncertain. That doesn’t necessarily mean you’re on the wrong path - it might just mean that this is the path. What do you guys think?
No one has commented on this post.