The next milestones to hit are:
* A 10x increase in generation capacity
* A 100x increase in storage capacity
* A 1000x increase in seasonal storage capacity
* Electrification of heating
* Electrification of synfuels and synthetic chemical feedstocks
Full energy sovereignty is achievable within 10 years at wartime-spending levels. Probably 30 years otherwise.
Rehabilitation of nuclear is almost certainly required for the transition and a very good hedge / backstop regardless.
It's painful indeed. Today, I watched the price go negative as wind and solar reduced the gas contribution to about 3% of the mix. As that gas mix rose to 5%, the price turned around and became painfully expensive again.
Imagine where Europe might be if half a trillion euros was spent on renewables.
The core problem as he describes it is that European governments don't own these providers so it's a wealth transfer from taxpayers to the ultra-wealthy.
Back in the pandemic, Spain was one of the few countries that tackled the inflation shock in a better way with a windfall profits tax. Interestingly, Europe is talking about doing that now [2]. That would be smarter.
Energy prices disproportionately hurt the poor [3]. If the government owned or part-owned the energy (like Norway does) then you could offset that without burning cash to stick your head in the sand for a little bit longer.
[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oi265I48MdI
[2]: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/04/europe-energy-windfall-profi...
[3]: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2023/rising-household...
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/electricity-gener... https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-profits-le...
And the reason Spain is so well insulated is because they have limited gas interconnection so they have a 'captive supplier' in Algerian gas. Algerian gas can basically only go to Spain, Morocco or the domestic Algerian market. They have some limited LNG export capacity (which is growing and will significantly change the price Spain pays longer term).
> We anticipate low solar capture prices of close to €25/MWh in 2027 and €20/MWh in 2028
> And the reason Spain is so well insulated is because they have limited gas interconnection so they have a 'captive supplier' in Algerian gas
Interestingly, this is also a factor in US pricing of natural gas and oil. The hotly contested (and ultimately cancelled) Keystone SL pipeline was designing to bring energy products to a wider market and ultimately to raise prices. Don't believe anyone who tells you oil companies build pipelines to lower prices. As an aside, different pipelines were built instead without the same controversy.
[1]: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/spain...
https://www.ft.com/content/7e8b47b3-7931-4354-9e8a-47d75d057...
My energy provider uses a tracker tariff which can change every half hour (it does have a maximum cap to prevent the issues seen in Texas). Prices are currently negative, so every kWh I use right now means the electricity company pays me.
Nuclear promised energy which was "too cheap to meter". But solar actually delivered.
It seems silly, but actually... it's driving useful behavior I suppose. Then again, maybe a good government would notice this and just fast track grid storage rather than distribute that work to all the citizens.
It discharges when prices are high. So it'll mostly go into my oven tonight. If export prices are high, it can also sell back.
Very roughly, we sell about 16% of our stored electricity - the rest is used by our home.
See https://shkspr.mobi/blog/2026/02/30-months-to-3mwh-some-more...
Still, it would feel nice - after the initial cost- to have very cheap power (only charge when cheap).
Yes, some people do this. There's even a startup built around the idea: https://www.axle.energy/
https://octopus.energy/power-pack/
See also https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/case-study-uk-electric...
If you switched to 'people get paid what they bid' it's almost certain the market would just converge back to this anyway - but with a lot more gaming and guesswork (wind guessing the gas marginal price to try and get the highest price).
The idea behind the regulation is that it's providing the maximum incentive to bring cheaper electricity to market.
If you try to mandate that high cost producers charge less, they will do what makes sense to control costs and then quit altogether once they are losing money.
In a world where renewables are cheaper the transparency speeds the transition
I'm open to the idea that oil and gas are protected and subsidized in many different ways.
Accurate information on how much more they costs than renewables I don't see the link.
Accurate prices are good. Actions that stop the market acting on the accurate prices are bad.
Do you think the Saudi's price their $10 per barrel oil at $10? The average price? Median? Or marginal?
They price at at the marginal price.
In the UK what this means is that cheap production like renewables and storage are incentivized to get built while the most expensive fossil production is shutting down.
Then at some point renewables start to become to marginal producer and prices crater. Which is already happening.
There's a plethora of producers with varying equipment, startup times, ramp times, costs and so on.
As renewable penetration expands the most expensive, or least flexible ones are called in fewer and fewer hours until they shut down. If one oil and gas producer tries to raise prices a competitor steps in and fills the demand.
Did you think there was this one monopoly oil and gas power producing able to dictate prices at will?
It says something that the people running the monopoly cash machine are asking questions about bankrupting their customers/ability to pay but politicians are shutting their eyes and pounding onto the accelerator. What a world.
Are you referring to the war Trump started, or are you all climate denying loons who love Trump and think net-zero is a Chinese hoax?
Or just nihilists that just think the world is going to shit in multiple ways and refuse to even contemplate small silver linings on dark clouds?
It's impossible to tell from these quips.
My guess is that £20bn/year is a fair cost overall in subsidy payments. This is clearly not offset by natural gas fuel savings even with elevated prices.
The UK IMO made a couple of critical mistakes. Firstly, far too much offshore wind is in Scotland when it should have been closer to population centres in England. A few factors for this but the issue is planning is devolved to Scotland (so they have every incentive to approve as many) but energy subsidies are set by Westminster. By the time UK central government realised this it was too late (or they didn't want to rock the cart for political reasons post/during Scottish independence referendum).
We're now having to pay £20-30bn+ to get Scottish wind generation down to England where it is needed (primarily through new 5 (!) 2GW HVDCs from Scotland to England). It would have been far far better just to... build those wind farms closer to England. This would have still required grid upgrades but far cheaper ones (bringing it 100-200km to population centres instead of all the way from Scotland, plus you still need to do the ones in England on top of that for the most part to get it from the HVDC landing sites to the population centres).
The second major issue is there is definitely massive diminishing returns from adding more renewables at this point. There's too many renewables on the grid a lot of the time, even if transmission was perfect - supply is outstripping demand. Instead of building more and more generation the subsidies should be redirected towards storage projects.
But overall, for the same £20bn a year you could have probably built 5 Hinckley Point C sized 3.2GW nuclear plants concurrently (assuming £4bn a year capex for 10 years). In 20 years you'd have probably 30GW of nuclear built, which should cover nearly all electricity demand in the UK in that time, with very limited transmission costs (existing nuclear plants have good grid connections and you build them close to them). And importantly, you would basically eliminate _any_ dependence on gas from the UK grid. Clearly nuclear has risks in project delivery, but at least it's reliable once built.
There's also subsidies for fossil fuels to consider [0]. I don't hold these figures as gospel, but there's inarguably a massive amount of money going to propping up the (wildly profitable and hugely destructive) industry that's causing most of your raised issues in the first place - either through reduced maintenance and infrastructure investment (gotta get those shareholder returns) or lobbying/public influence campaigns.
To be clear - I absolutely agree with most of your complaints. I just see them as issues caused/exacerbated by entrenched political players, and I think the benefits to our society of getting off our fossil fuel addiction are worth the costs of modernizing our infrastructure for the long haul.
[0] - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/09/fossil-f...
All of that fully decentralized, within the next years instead of decades, with distributed (not megacorp) ownership AND not having every other of these megaprojects cancelled due to protests.
And that figure doesn't even include externalized cost like national/environmental security or decommissioning costs.
Nuclear is riding a dead horse in 2026.
The UK needs to subsidize nuclear, as well as wind, solar, and everything in between.
There's a reason countries like the US, China, Japan, India, South Korea, and others are investing in this kind of domestic capacity and spending tens to hundreds of billions to do so.
The planing issues were mostly due to the conservative party having a complete hate for onshore wind.
Planning began for Hinkley Point C in 20113. It was approved in 2016. Construction commenced in 2017-2018. It's hit major delays and is currently projected to come online in 2030. It could be delayed furhter. Unit 2 is expected about a year later [1]. Cost have ballooned to almost £50 billion [2] and may balloon further.
So you're looking at almost 20 years to build, £50 billion in costs and electricity production of ~3.2GW.
AFAICT that 3.2GW is ~7% of the UK's current electricity requirements so I'm not sure where you're getting "nearly all electricity demand". Also, 5 Hinkley Point Cs would be 16GW of electricity not 30GW.
Hinkley Point C has a contracted price of £133/MWh. I imagine there's some risk-sharing and inflation in the contract so this will probably go up. Compare this to £65/MWh for new solar and £72/MWh for new onshore wind [3]. Plus of course that wind and solar projects don't take 20 years to come online.
Lastly, the only way the per MWh costs can even get that low is by giving Hinkley Point C a 60 year lifespan to amortize the cost over a sufficiently large timespan. It's likely that as the plant ages, operational costs will significantly increase beyond what's projected.
[1]: https://eandt.theiet.org/2026/02/23/hinkley-point-c-faces-fu...
[2]: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/02/20/hinkley-poin...
[3]: https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-new-uk-onshore-wind-and-solar...
How? The issue is local NIMBYs [0], anti-industry environmentalists [1], far left leaning groups [2], and even the fishing lobby [3] all attempt to obstruct wind farm expansion and make it difficult for moderates in Labour to actually execute on building energy independence for the UK.
Of course, this is also being amplified by information warfare by opponents to the UK [4][5], as can be seen by the social media campaign against offshore wind farms in the Isle of Man [6].
Frankly, the UK needs to internalize Fiona Hill's [7] position and start cracking down on fifth columnists like Farage, Corbyn, and their acolytes.
[0] - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3r39el1ne0o
[1] - https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/26000069.rejection-200m-...
[2] - https://www.thetimes.com/uk/environment/article/labour-versu...
[3] - https://fishingnews.co.uk/news/developer-pulls-out-of-east-o...
[4] - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jan/18/uk-politics...
[5] - https://www.thetimes.com/uk/social-media/article/iran-war-fa...
[6] - https://www.facebook.com/61588338835208/
[7] - https://xcancel.com/FrankRGardner/status/2027098560647348410
But it was incredibly dumb to build many GW of offshore wind in Scotland when the grid was already over capacity.
Frankly, opposition to either onshore or offshore wind farms is dumb and is clearly being weaponized by opponents of the UK.
> But it was incredibly dumb to build many GW of offshore wind in Scotland when the grid was already over capacity
Overcapacity is a good problem to have from a NatSec perspective (as is seen with Chinese and Indian solar).
Also, it's the Scottish Government that has been backing offshore wind farm development for almost a decade [1].
Similar initiatives could have been done in England, but face persistent issues at the local level due to weaponized opposition.
[0] - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c74vj881090o
[1] - https://www.gov.scot/policies/marine-renewable-energy/offsho...
The issue is the next generation of offshore wind projects in England is up in the air. This was why Hornsea 4 [0] was cancelled by Ørsted, how the Isle of Man has mobilized against the Mooir Vannin project [1] despite it having the potential to help Liverpool and Manchester, and the Shetland's project being cancelled due to the fishing lobby [2].
What is under construction today doesn't matter because those projects started a decade ago. What matters is whether new projects are being allowed or blocked.
[0] - https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/offsho...
[1] - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c74vj881090o
[2] - https://fishingnews.co.uk/news/developer-pulls-out-of-east-o...
Electricity prices are high in the UK but there is a net benefit to it at least some ways, as always the devil is in the details, all the details.
The UK relies heavily on tourism. Tourism is disrupted by global instability. Climate change and fossil-fuel-catalyzed wars cultivate global instability. And the UK doesn't have the land or people to compete on the global stage in manufacturing exports (not that they do bad work, just that the scale doesn't exactly pan out. Not unless people are really keen on telling the tale of two cities again).
Best policy is likely to focus on domestic affairs (how to keep the country stable and solvent as the population shifts towards more and more retirees) and maybe look into rejoining that massive free-trade sector right down the block that the country so short-sightedly left a short time ago, since it'd really open up the tourism and trade markets.
Also, in my experience the green initiatives generally have terrible publicity and these kind of articles are just pointing out some positives in a sea of negatives. What we endlessly miss is that the British public generally wants Co2 reduced and have got that.
If you like the idea of renewables take some time to understand the economics instead of spouting the same tired lies.
They don't "hamstring the economy". Nor will adopting them cause you to "fall behind". The "rest of the world" is rapidly adopting renewables.
Current price −£24.86/MWh (yes you get paid to use it)
But timeshift seems to be increasingly important.
If you fixed at 33p, sucks to be you, my electricity has been free to negative all day.
Like a gambler who only talks about their wins, people on these smart energy plans on the few days it goes very cheap only seem to pipe up with the current low unit price, and never mention their longer-term moving-average unit price...
17.1p (last 6 months) no battery, no timeshifting
You can see the transition happening. Right now.
Yes, building infrastructure costs money. Where's the problem?
I support the roll out of renewables. I worked for a renewable energy company in the UK.
I just think a lot of consumers (industry and residential) have had to pay a very high price to get to the current situation. And lots of foreign private and other institutional (the Crown) organisations have benefitted most from this fast but expensive transition.