There's a saying in poker that if you sit down at the table and can't immediately find the donkey(1), you are the donkey. At some point, anyone playing around in a prediction without insider info will be the donkey.

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glossary_of_poker_terms#donkey

Given the accused breaking of ceasefire shortly after agreement, not sure how this bet really gets paid out.

Just imagine how bad insider trading is on other markets. Stricter laws and crack downs should be implemented globally.

I wonder if this sort of corruption will become a new negotiation tactic. Give us what we want and we'll delay the announcement long enough for you to make preparations.

I don't know how Polymarket works, so maybe you can enlighten me: can Polymarket be subpoenaed to provide the recipients of the payouts? Is there some insulation to keep them ignorant of their identity?