Investors pile into clean energy as Iran war drives push for energy security
40 points
3 hours ago
| 5 comments
| ft.com
| HN
kilroy123
1 hour ago
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The biggest difference now is that the tech and scale are here now. The prices are dropping like a rock for grid storage, thanks to China. Sodium-ion battery production is being ramped up.

I honestly think renewables will grow exponentially from now all fosil fuel is dead.

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uyzstvqs
34 minutes ago
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> thanks to China

We just have to be careful there. My fellow Europeans here will remember what resulted out of depending on an adversary for energy, in our case Russian NG. We don't want another energy crisis as the result of geopolitical tensions.

We shouldn't import foreign DRM, our critical infrastructure should not utilize foreign-hosted or proprietary IoT, and we should invest in local manufacturing utilizing automation.

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Weryj
28 minutes ago
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Not quite the same, a solar panel installed doesn’t disappear if China changes their stance.
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JumpCrisscross
5 minutes ago
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> solar panel installed doesn’t disappear if China changes their stance

Most countries have days to, at most, months of imports of oil in reserve. In contrast, a panel embargo wouldn’t have disastrous effects for years. But reliance it is the same. If you’re dependent on Chinese panels, China can cap your energy growth at whim. The degradation will be slow thereafter, but present nevertheless.

Using foreign panels for anything other than bootstrapping domestic or allied production would be the EU repeating its follies first with Russia and then with American LNG.

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fragmede
24 minutes ago
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Not the panel itself, but the firmware of the solar panel charge controller and inverter that's connected to the Internet because there's an app to monitor the system. I wouldn't bet that there aren't remote kill switches deep inside that firmware.
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interstice
17 minutes ago
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The panels and controllers are mostly interchangeable are they not?
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firebot
16 minutes ago
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They've found some of those in the wild. They weren't that deep.
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JumpCrisscross
5 minutes ago
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Source?
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WarmWash
16 minutes ago
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All Europe has to do is let young people become billionaires with limited liability and an unencumbered team selection.

I know it sounds like satire, but there is a good reason tech exploded in the US 30 years ago while Europe is still making cars like it's the 1960's.

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grunder_advice
1 hour ago
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I've held green tech stocks in the past but never made a dime out of them. There was a pattern to them. First there'd be demand, then the factories in China will turn on and suddenly there's a glut so the price goes back down. Then the factories would shut off again and the cycle repeats. I wonder if that's still happening.
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WJW
50 minutes ago
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Interestingly, oil investors experience this boom-and-bust cycle too: every time oil prices spike, a bunch of extra companies flood into the market to drill some wells or weld pipelines or build tankers or whatever. All the extra supply crashes the price and most of the new companies go bankrupt or get consolidated into the big energy firms. This slowly brings spare capacity back down, so the next time there's a disruption the cycle kicks off for its next round.
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smallerize
1 minute ago
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That used to be true, but things have really settled down. Notice the lack of rushing to start more fracking or refining projects during this crisis.
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adjejmxbdjdn
56 minutes ago
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Green stocks in the west will not be successful because of green politics in the West.

Green tech is a fledgling industry trying to challenge a dominant, well established one.

Any such industry needs basic government support, but at the very least, predictable government regulation.

Unfortunately not only have we not seen support, we’ve seen opposition from the government, and the stability has been laughable.

Meanwhile that’s exactly what the Chinese government is providing which means the entire industry (outside of a now small section of wind power in Europe, which preceded green tech becoming political football) is Chinese, so you and I and pretty much everyone outside China has been cut off from benefitting from it as an investment and can only benefit from it as consumers.

There is hope that the Europeans might finally get their act together here, but hoping the Europeans may get their act together in investment, industrial and financial policy has so far been a fool’s game. There’s little to no hope for America getting its act together for at least a few years in the green tech supply chain, although the actual green tech consumption seems to be growing even with the political headwinds.

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xiphias2
10 minutes ago
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AI is getting a multitrillion valuation business, and depends on energy in US a lot, so I can imagine that all kind of energy lobby will get very strong.

Of course I believe oil lobby doesn't want competition, so it will be a rich guys' fight.

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PearlRiver
4 minutes ago
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The North Sea has given us free fish, trade with all corners of the world and now it's one giant windmill farm.
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giantg2
1 hour ago
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Are there any renewable energy companies manufacturing in the US? Seems like all are downstream of that, just providing installation and management. Actual energy security should include some meaningful domestic production.
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firebot
3 minutes ago
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T1 Energy in Texas is producing solar panels and systems including batteries at gigawatt scales.

Illuminate in Ohio claims to be going even bigger than T1.

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micromacrofoot
16 minutes ago
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not at a meaningful scale, and the environment for this under the current administration is increasingly hostile so it won't be for years
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mcswell
1 hour ago
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Donald Trump: "Drill, baby, drill!"

American oil companies: "It doesn't pay, oil prices are too low to make drilling worth while."

Donald Trump: "War, baby, war!" (Oil prices go up)

The rest of the world: "Renewables!"

Five or ten years from now, when renewables have largely replaced oil, gas and coal in most of the world, the US will be the only major country still using fossil fuels. And the rest of the world will be better off; the US, not so much.

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adrianN
37 minutes ago
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I wish I shared your optimism, but for fossil fuels to become irrelevant in ten years we’d need to ban the sale of ICE cars and fossil heating today. Not to mention industrial uses of fossil fuels.
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iknowSFR
46 minutes ago
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It’s no coincidence that everything from energy sources to civil rights to military strategy to trade policy struggle to evolve from the same era the US became a super power, 1945-1955. Its downfall is its nostalgia for that period.
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JumpCrisscross
2 minutes ago
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> evolve from the same era the US became a super power, 1945-1955. Its downfall is its nostalgia for that period

Four out of our last five Presidents were born within 4 years of each other [1]. Three (Bush Jr., Clinton and Trump) were born in 1946.

[1] https://www.loriferber.com/amp/research/presidential-facts-s...

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firebot
9 minutes ago
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Fossil fuels hopefully aren't going anywhere.

We should absolutely stop burning them, though.

For instance, modern medicine requires petroleum and there's no real alternatives at this time.

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gcanyon
46 minutes ago
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This is exactly what I came to post. It's like Trump was designed in a lab to destroy the US :-(
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xeonmc
32 minutes ago
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I like to cope optimistically that Trump is actually the God Emperor Leto II from Dune, the omniscient and visually hideous tyrant-messiah who is engineering the circumstances to “teach humanity a lesson they will remember in their bones”, and this is all his Golden Path to force humanity to grow wiser after his demise.
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