forge "fragmentation" is a good thing. git was meant to be decentralized from the start. re-centralizing on a single provider would just repeat the github saga all over again.

It's a huge miss for this article to not talk about atproto, Tangled, and how protocols can solve the fragmentation issues - both between different services and by allowing projects to run their own host while being connected to the network.

https://tangled.org/

With the atproto approach you don't have to worry about reserving usernames specifically for one forge or another - usernames are atproto handles, your Bluesky handle, custom domain, etc.

I'm not sure if Tangled itself is the right incarnation of these ideas, but a protocol for PRs, issues, forks, and activity is the right direction for the industry.

I don't think we're anywhere close to the downfall of GitHub. It'll be a very slow decay.

The fact is, lots of people are very happy using AI tools, and most of those hook straight into GitHub. If AI is driving all this new code, it's only going to make moving away from GitHub more painful.

Businesses I've spoken to hate the idea of moving their code forge. Migrations like that suck and they're expensive. There isn't a meaningful differentiator between the other managed options, so the goal would just be to stand still. Unless GitHub's stability spirals fast I don't see a big wave of businesses leaving.

I say all this as someone who's been moving their code over to their own Forgejo instance. I'm all for more competition and fragmentation in this area, I just don't think it's happening soon.

That looks like a whole load of work. The thing thay is not defined is why I should do it.

Also forge are already fragmented. I use OpenBSD and the software in ports comes from all over the web. You got the forges, web links,… As far as collaboration go, you can always send an email to the person. Up to them to accept it. If I care that much, I will publish a blog post or share it via the community’s channel.

Those articles look like linkedin-style post to work on your brand or for some internet points.