38 points
3 hours ago
| 1 comment
| HN
fhdkweig
1 hour ago
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This was discussed 23 hours ago with 215 comments. The short answer is that "international emergency" does not mean "global pandemic".

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48168708

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xnorswap
1 hour ago
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That is true, although I note that was also true of COVID 19 between January and mid-March 2020, which was also classified as a PHEIC, right up until it wasn't.

That doesn't mean that this one will become a pandemic, but it also doesn't preclude it.

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InsideOutSanta
57 minutes ago
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A major difference is that COVID-19 can spread during the incubation period, while Ebola transmission typically only occurs after symptoms appear. This makes Ebola a much less likely candidate for a pandemic.

Ebola also has a lower mutation rate than COVID-19, so it is unlikely to change into a more pandemic-prone strain.

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xnorswap
53 minutes ago
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For sure, I'm not deliberately trying to be alarmist.
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jerf
1 hour ago
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_national_emergencies_i... , then click the "Status" sorter on the list, which should sort by "current" first. If my eyeball count is correct, there are currently 51 Federal emergencies in the United States, with the oldest going back to Carter. Although that one is "Blocking Iranian Government Property" - "Ordered the freezing of Iranian assets as part of the U.S. response during the Iran hostage crisis", so maybe the argument that it's still ongoing isn't as hard as it may have been, say, 5 years ago.

I know that's not the WHO, I just cite that as an example of how the term is much more casually used than a normal person on the street might by bureacracies.

While an "emergency" is meaningful, it also isn't equal to "everyone everywhere should panic about this", it's a bureaucratic and legal term somewhat disconnected from its common definition. It triggers some provisions in some treaties and requires states to respond promptly to some things, but that's all. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_int... shows previous ones, and COVID isn't the exemplar of their emergency declarations, it's the one that sticks out like a sore thumb.

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