Bitcoin Has Longest Losing Streak Since August in Bruising Week
45 points
2 hours ago
| 15 comments
| bloomberg.com
| HN
chewbacha
39 minutes ago
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Crypto investors are migrated to the newest unregulated speculative asset: the stock market.

I don’t know for certain but the amount of retail investing on vibes around AI companies and metals feels just like the crypto peaks. Just the other day Marvell jumped on the words of Jensen Huang and metal ETFs randomly lost tons of investment earlier this year.

Without a lot of the guardrails of the US regulatory apparatus that has been gutted by the current administration, the market is riff with manipulation. Truly another gilded age.

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seemaze
33 minutes ago
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I just finished the recently published The Alighty Dollar by Brendan Greeley [0]. It is a great story of the evolution of currency in general and the dollar specifically. It wraps up with a brief critique of crypto in general that I found interesting.

[0]https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/634502/the-almighty...

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j2kun
50 minutes ago
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Bitcoin price stories should no longer be considered on topic for HN.
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tom_
16 minutes ago
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Very true. Now that we have AI, Bitcoin is irrelevant.
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shlant
27 minutes ago
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agreed
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defmetrix
48 minutes ago
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My own personal opinion is that the hype around bitcoin is not coming back. I dont think its going to zero, but too many people have just moved on.
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scotty79
43 minutes ago
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Do we need hype when Blackrock is in?
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OutOfHere
40 minutes ago
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You clearly must not be familiar with its cycles.
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pyvpx
31 minutes ago
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Is bitcoin a commodity? What’s driving the cyclical nature of the price discovery for entries on a global ledger?
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shlant
27 minutes ago
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> What’s driving the cyclical nature of the price discovery for entries on a global ledger?

https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769

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jondwillis
23 minutes ago
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Halvings? I guess?
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ecshafer
34 minutes ago
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Bitcoin doesn't really have any coherent reasoning behind it, that I can tell. Other investments I can have a theory (which may be wrong) and see it work. I can buy gold/silver to hedge weaker currency. I can believe a stock is going up (or the market in general). I can buy bonds. I can do Forex or Commodities based on whatever feeling if I really want to lose money. But Bitcoin doesn't really seem to correlate with anything.
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4fterd4rk
26 minutes ago
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That's circular logic on the gold/silver. You basically say gold/silver holds value because it holds value. Bitcoin and other crypto is really no more illogical than precious metals. Precious metals have a few relatively minor uses for industrial applications but really they're valuable because we've all agreed they're valuable, no different than Bitcoin.
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canada_dry
22 minutes ago
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> Bitcoin doesn't really have any coherent reasoning behind it

Stocks are feeling more and more like this also.

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barumrho
32 minutes ago
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You mean you aren't bullish on volume of illegal transactions? /s
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xnx
30 minutes ago
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Looks like BTC might still be overvalued by $63,825.96
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stephc_int13
20 minutes ago
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Here is a prediction about Bitcoin: there will be a financial crash at some point in the future, maybe it will be the AI bubble, maybe because of oil, shortages, something entirely unforeseen or some combination of those things, but if there is something to know about cycles is that crashes happens.

And because Bitcoin is now old enough that most people understand what it is, the hype has vanished, it won't survive the global fear or losing it all.

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analognoise
3 minutes ago
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Of course it won’t survive, it’s the jpeg of a chimp in a baseball cap smoking a cigar of money.
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mgh2
1 hour ago
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Ajedi32
49 minutes ago
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Are there other cryptocurrencies that use quantum safe cryptography that aren't being affected by the downswing?
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_glass
27 minutes ago
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You could look at only two niche blockchains, QRL and ABEL, and they are both affected. Algorand is the most established L1 with a quite developed migration plan (https://algorand.co/technology/post-quantum) but also not really thriving. I think for Bitcoin in the longterm it is a massive risk psychologically, because what to do with all of the locked in value, that cannot be migrated. My guess is that the market panics and security breaks down, because it is not worth it anymore to run that many nodes. Best time to buy would be then and hope it recovers. It is actually a big chance to move just to another L1 which migrates. Those risks are all priced in.
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cyanydeez
1 hour ago
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or maybe they sont need an alternate criminal coin if you can now do fraud and crime in dollars with less transaction (bribe) cost.
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gessha
58 minutes ago
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Another idea is big players pulling out of the crypto market and putting it into the LLM market.
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mgh2
44 minutes ago
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Yeah, all it takes is a shift in the narrative to trigger capital reallocation.
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ascendantlogic
38 minutes ago
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Bitcoin (and crypto at large) goes through these 4 year cycles repeatedly. Each time people claim its dead, "this time is different", etc etc. It peaked at the end of 2024 and now we're in mid 2026...traditionally near the bottom of the cycle. There IS someone in the White House now that seems hellbent on driving the global economy into the ground but until there's definitive evidence that this time really is different, I'm going to assume it's business as usual and people screaming about how its over is just the buy indicator it's been many times in the past.
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fsflover
21 minutes ago
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> Each time people claim its dead, "this time is different", etc etc

Related: https://www.bitcoinisdead.org/

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catigula
36 minutes ago
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There's no such thing as predicting the future when it comes to assets. Patterns aren't guarantors of future returns. If they were; the asset would be a sure-thing. Your confidence isn't warranted.
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shlant
29 minutes ago
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lets's come back to this one year from now and see if it bottoms around Oct 6
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the_gastropod
30 minutes ago
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Technical analysis is just astrology for finance bros.
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tim-projects
54 minutes ago
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Bitcoin has gone through a number of narratives. A big one was the it was digital gold. Then, gold went up like crazy and bitcoin stagnated and people lost interest.

It's still a store of value.. I guess?

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readthenotes1
16 minutes ago
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Just like beanie babies
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scotty79
44 minutes ago
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We are in the middle of every 4 year hole at the moment. Heights and lows are unpredictable but the timing is still solid.
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OutOfHere
38 minutes ago
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The lows are also predictable in my estimation.
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scotty79
5 minutes ago
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How low will it go in this cycle by your estimates?
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Overpower0416
1 hour ago
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People will FUD. After the cycle is over, Bitcoin will make new ATH and the people who bought the dip will be called lucky. Same old tale
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oldandboring
45 minutes ago
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> Same old tale

I have sweatshirts that are older than Bitcoin, brother.

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Overpower0416
31 minutes ago
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And will certainly outlive your sweatshirts
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OutOfHere
36 minutes ago
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Precisely, although the dip is likely to be deeper. Having said this, the quantum risk is real, and if left unaddressed, the pattern will break.
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Overpower0416
29 minutes ago
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People will come up with whatever narrative for Bitcoin. Bears sound smart but in the end bulls make the money
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jqpabc123
1 hour ago
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I like to tell people I have an imaginary dog.

It fits my needs perfectly except for one critical issue --- it won't clean up food dropped on the floor.

Bitcoin is imaginary money. It works perfectly except for one critical issue --- it's not very good for purchasing stuff.

Bitcoin has about the same value as my imaginary dog.

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deejaaymac
1 hour ago
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I use bitcoin to pay for things several times a month, works fine for me.
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malfist
47 minutes ago
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I use USD to pay for things several times a day. Sometimes many times a day. Something that in comparison works only "several times a month" fits the criteria of not being very good at it.
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cozzyd
1 hour ago
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Are you paying Strait of Hormuz passage fees, perchance?
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tigereyeTO
1 hour ago
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Contrived.

Your imaginary dog can’t teleport value across the globe instantly, but Bitcoin can.

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darth_avocado
58 minutes ago
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Value can only teleport if someone is willing to trade traditional currency in exchange on the other side. My no international fee bank account also teleports value across the globe instantly and more merchants are willing to accept it than Bitcoin.
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avmich
47 minutes ago
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Telll it to my friend who was escaping a country under sanctions and had to move his money elsewhere. His bank didn't have that miraculous power, but Bitcoin did.
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malfist
44 minutes ago
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Yes, I agree. Bitcoin is great for crime.
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ceejayoz
51 minutes ago
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> Your imaginary dog can’t teleport value across the globe instantly, but Bitcoin can.

"Someone can instantly and permanently steal your beloved dog and you'll never see it again" is a downside.

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jjulius
46 minutes ago
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The fact that people have instantly and permanently stolen Bitcoin renders that argument moot.
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ceejayoz
42 minutes ago
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I think you've misunderstood my point. Yes, this happens to Bitcoin. That is a downside of it. The parent poster's asserting it's an upside.
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jjulius
34 minutes ago
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D'oh! Sorry! I'll go grab some more coffee before trying to think critically.
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amelius
49 minutes ago
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That's only because many people share the mental image of the imaginary dog.
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lern_too_spel
1 hour ago
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Can your imaginary dog be stolen by Russia and North Korea to circumvent sanctions? Are people buying "ownership" of your imaginary dog in a speculative frenzy that will cause the last bagholder to take a bath when there are no more greater fools?

It's true that your imaginary dog, like Bitcoin, has no good legal use; but your imaginary dog is harmless. Bitcoin is not.

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ToucanLoucan
59 minutes ago
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Don't forget the flagrant use by politicians to grift their supporters and/or receive money that would otherwise be illegal to do so from foreign actors through it.

Truly amazing that the tech elite have replicated everything wrong with the existing financial system while not managing to get any of the actual good, useful parts.

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erelong
1 hour ago
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"Good time to buy"
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goodmythical
58 minutes ago
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My immediate reaction: "Oooh, bitcoin's on sale!"
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NDlurker
53 minutes ago
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I've been buying the dip all week
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malfist
48 minutes ago
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Catch that falling knife
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NDlurker
18 minutes ago
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That's what kevlar gloves are for.
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