S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic
196 points
2 hours ago
| 12 comments
| arstechnica.com
| HN
zhivota
14 minutes ago
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Big relief for me. As a passive investor, I want the indices to follow the same passive strategy they always have, and specifically not make exceptions for specific companies like SpaceX wanted.

Plenty of ways to get exposure to that stock without it going into the indices it is not qualified for.

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gizajob
11 minutes ago
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This news tanked 5% off the Nasdaq yesterday so it’s still not exactly a cause for joy. We’ve hit the p of the pop of the AI bubble in stocks.
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JumpCrisscross
10 minutes ago
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> This news tanked 5% off the Nasdaq yesterday

No, it did not. The market moved in reaction to earnings misses from e.g. Broadcom [1] and the strong jobs report.

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/broadcom-stock-sin...

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vasco
1 minute ago
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The market moved in reaction to the totality of events that happened in the world all averaged out through the actions of the participants, anyone who says "this" was what happened on any day is wrong. Some days have dominating factors but even if the event is the dominant one, the reason why it has the impact it does might be a 3rd or 4th level effect.
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JumpCrisscross
28 seconds ago
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> anyone who says "this" was what happened on any day is wrong

There is never a singular reason. But there are negligible reasons. The S&P not choosing to incorporate SpaceX was a neglible reason for this week's stock-price movements in the public markets.

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zippyman55
1 hour ago
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Yep!! Respect to them. I was planning to move to an equal weight index but this gives me a little more time to evaluate options.
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LinguaBrowse
9 minutes ago
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I’ve moved my S&P 500 investments to the Equal Weight index to reduce my exposure to AI. Quite aside from SpaceX, I think the large-cap tech companies are making some uncomfortably large bets on AI and any major upset could cause a domino effect.

But as so many ETFs have a significant stake in large-cap US tech stocks (the top 10 holdings of the iShares MSCI World ETF is entirely comprised US Big Tech, making up 20% of the value of the ETF), I found S&P 500 Equal Weight to be pretty attractive.

As for SpaceX itself? I feel the numbers involved all sound a bit unbelievable to me. I fear that there will be a rug-pull sometime post-IPO, and retail investors (and taxpayers, if the US Government ends up taking a stake, as they have recently indicated they might do for OpenAI) will inevitably be left holding the bag.

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zeroonetwothree
59 minutes ago
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They weight by free float so it would been something like 0.3%. Hardly the end of the world
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figmert
24 minutes ago
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Why is that relevant? The rules are in place for a reason, why does it matter what the percentage is? They're not profitable. When they prove they're worth the dollars, they can be included, per the rules.

Also, S&P500 has a current market cap of $67 trillion, 0.3% of that is some $200billion. That is essentially a wealth transfer to the rich. They don't need it.

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kortilla
13 minutes ago
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> That is essentially a wealth transfer to the rich. They don't need it.

These are not valid arguments. The companies that get added to the S&P are always owned in some fraction by rich people.

SpaceX is obviously majorly owned by Elon, but it’s also owned by regular employees, a bunch of private investors and other funds that regular people invest in.

> They're not profitable.

Right

> When they prove they're worth the dollars,

Profitable isn’t related to “worth the dollars”. You need to look at income and how much is being reinvested into growth. Amazon famously remained unprofitable due to reinvestment and waiting for them to become profitable before investing was a bad bet.

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gizajob
2 minutes ago
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Mostly owned by Elon who has 84% of the voting rights. Completely his entity and it can’t be denied that the value of an interesting space business has been massively inflated by tacking a worthless AI business onto it.
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muadddib
6 minutes ago
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So is spacex growing like Amazon was? There is no evidence of growth. And no, Google renting them infra grom then is not growth. If it waa, AllBirds is the next unicorn
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SkiFire13
9 minutes ago
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> SpaceX is obviously majorly owned by Elon, but it’s also owned by regular employees, a bunch of private investors and other funds that regular people invest in.

Is it really owned by them if Elon retains most of the voting rights anyway?

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JumpCrisscross
3 minutes ago
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> Is it really owned by them if Elon retains most of the voting rights anyway?

Owned by various folks. Controlled by Elon. Granted, I don't know how Texas law deals with minority rights.

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ddalex
30 minutes ago
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"they only be stealing a tiny amount so not worth doing anything"
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JumpCrisscross
1 hour ago
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> I was planning to move to an equal weight index

The only substantial effect I've seen of the influencers who were doomsplaining this decision was some minor churn in retirement assets from low-cost S&P 500 followers to higher-cost funds. (The market, broadly, never priced in a rebalancing of the S&P 500. So this was almost entirely whipped up by influencers.)

Broadly speaking, if you were actually considering trading on the back of S&P's decision, or worse, if you actually did, consider trimming who you follow for financial advice.

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vostrocity
41 minutes ago
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The market may not have ever priced in a rebalancing of the S&P 500, but the S&P 500 also has never allowed entry of companies that may never become profitable.
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JumpCrisscross
11 minutes ago
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> the S&P 500 also has never allowed entry of companies that may never become profitable

Yup. Which is why it was always a long shot. I personally thought they'd adopt some of the seasoning rules, but they were more conservative than even that.

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kgwgk
12 minutes ago
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> The market, broadly, never priced in a rebalancing of the S&P 500

And if you had seen it what would have that pricing looked like?

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JumpCrisscross
11 minutes ago
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> if you had seen it what would have that pricing looked like?

Look up rebalancing trades, or, less graciously, rebalancing front running. If the index is going to rebalance to include a new entrant, you'll see the other components trade down in anticipation. It's a very tight signal, and it wasn't present to any measurable degree for the S&P 500.

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jb_briant
11 minutes ago
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I wonder if profitable means that investment must be recouped or just if your operational expenses must be compensated by your earnings.

Anthropic is becoming "profitable" while burning a series H of 69 bns usd. Does it count as profitable?

I'm curious if someone well versed in finance can answer, because from my uneducated perspective, it's not profitable to burn billions in order to make a billion.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/20/anthropic-revenue-explosive-...

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JumpCrisscross
7 minutes ago
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> wonder if profitable means that investment must be recouped or just if your operational expenses must be compensated by your earnings

S&P requires profitability (i.e. net income) according to GAAP. That definition incorporates both ROA and operating income.

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awestroke
7 minutes ago
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EBITDA is typically used to evaluate profitability.
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JumpCrisscross
3 minutes ago
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> EBITDA is typically used to evaluate profitability

S&P requires GAAP profits, i.e. net income. EBITDA is above that.

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Drupon
29 minutes ago
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Crazy to see the Twitter behavior here of really smart, well conveyed top level comments replied to by weird propaganda pushing bottom feeders.
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solenoid0937
13 minutes ago
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HN discussion quality has deteriorated dramatically, especially for anything AI related.
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kortilla
5 minutes ago
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The top level comments are not smart or well conveyed, they are just the other side of the internet echo chamber. “Good, the rich don’t need money”, etc.

I think Elon owned companies are just a third rail for any kind of intelligent discussion because it turns into Elon fan boys arguing against Elon haters.

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ferrouswheel
6 minutes ago
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Finally some adults in the room.
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hvb2
1 hour ago
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satvikpendem
1 hour ago
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Nice to see others are thinking the same, as I just posted the same article as a dupe of this one.
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RobotToaster
33 minutes ago
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It's a risky investment, yes there's a chance it could go to the moon, but it could also plummet to earth.
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danielovichdk
57 minutes ago
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Stocks and money. It's so boring.

I will go drive my old German car now, and get a bit drunk in a bottle of Nebbiolo while listening to some French lunatic with a piano.

Enjoy your trip to Mars and your self driving toy cars. The world is off its rails. Bit time.

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xeonmc
11 minutes ago
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just be sure do it in that order and not the other way around
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q3k
15 minutes ago
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What's your SKILLS.md? Is your flow multi-agentic?
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somewhatgoated
27 minutes ago
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Sir this is a message board run by an US-American venture capitalist organisation; frankly what do you expect
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satvikpendem
1 hour ago
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sergiotapia
1 hour ago
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Major W. Regular people were going to get robbed blind.
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JumpCrisscross
48 minutes ago
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> Major W. Regular people were going to get robbed blind

Not really. One, it was unlikely to happen. The market not pricing in any rebalancing communicated that. Two, the magnitude–even for the S&P 500–would have been small. About a third of stocks are in passive strategies, about 15% in any index, and while most of that is the S&P 500, the index market is incredibly competitive.

S&P made the right move. But the tragedy this episode has revealed, at least to me, is in how venal and influential this new breed of financial influencers on YouTube and X are, and the degree to which they're willing to misinform to get clicks.

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frikskit
23 minutes ago
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What was unlikely to happen? It already happened in Nasdaq. It’s nice that it didn’t for S&P but for most investors it already did happen, so I’m not sure the ‘whatever’ attitude is warranted.

Also, since when is it appropriate/intellectually OK to respond to allegations of corruption by saying ‘stop freaking out, it’s only a small amount of corruption PER PERSON’.

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JumpCrisscross
13 minutes ago
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> What was unlikely to happen?

The S&P adopting the rule changes.

> It already happened in Nasdaq

NASDAQ 100 is marketed as a tech-focussed fund. It's also way smaller. And it makes sense for it to include new issues. Total-market funds are also being adapted to include these, and again, that makes sense.

> for most investors it already did happen

What do you mean? For the vast, vast majority of investors, nothing happened. If S&P had adoped these rules, the majority of investors would still be unaffected.

> when is it appropriate/intellectually OK to respond to allegations of corruption by saying ‘stop freaking out, it’s only a small amount of corruption PER PERSON’

I'm saying the allegations of corruption were misplaced. The rule changes have been mooted for years. Did Musk et al try to put their thumbs on the scale? Sure. That should be called out.

But the scaremongering that followed was full of factual misrepresentations. Moreover, it presumed corruption across the board versus certain actors trying to corrupt a process, all for the purpose of getting views.

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ChrisArchitect
1 hour ago
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muadddib
1 hour ago
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Kudos to S&P 500. Vast majority of the world has no clue how trillions of $ from their pension funds is being funneled to the select few. Absolutely pathetic.
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JumpCrisscross
1 hour ago
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> no clue how trillions of $ from their pension funds

Pension funds don't tend to follow the S&P 500, much less automatically. They're sophisticated institutional investors like CalPERS [1] who dabble in everything from public stocks to private equity.

It's other retirement assets, e.g. 401(k)s and IRAs, that tend to follow the S&P 500. But again, with substantial variation.

S&P including these companies would have driven a lot of money towards them. But there was a lot of misinformation around the magnitude of that drive, as well as the breadth of whom it would affect.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CalPERS

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viceconsole
41 minutes ago
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In the US at least, many pension funds are not sophisticated, they're small, underfunded, and getting taken for a ride by expensive advisors who promise fantastical returns that will help dig them out of their funding ratio hole. Many would be better off using an S&P 500 index fund for their equity component instead of getting wined and dined into an illiquid, opaque private equity investment.

Telling that among OECD countries, the US is an outlier in having a much lower average funding ratio, and this despite the fantastic performance of the US stock market over the last 15 years.

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JumpCrisscross
8 minutes ago
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> many pension funds are not sophisticated, they're small, underfunded, and getting taken for a ride by expensive advisors

Who tend to come up with bumfuck benchmarks other than the common ones. Sometimes for good reasons. Often to justify their own comp.

> Many would be better off using an S&P 500 index fund

Maybe. They would probably be better off with some total-market funds (instead of biasing towards large caps, especially if they're small). But my point stands: pension funds don't tend to automatically follow any major index, much less the S&P 500 proper.

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